The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    NICE gain today. Too bad the tech side of things lagged.......but......you cant have everything, every day. I am content to be very nicely GREEN in my accounts today. Although......I was BEAT by the SP500 by .45% today.

    As to the "virus"......old news. People have moved on as they move back into NORMAL life. As I mentioned once before....we eat out nearly every day. We have yet to have anyone within 15 feet of us in ANY restaurant. ABSOLUTELY no feelings of being at risk or unsafe. Every business we have been in is doing a great job.

    As to the old virus......here is some interesting data:

    You are not going to die from COVID-19'
    COVID-19 resources should focus on elderly with underlying conditions, set rest of humanity free

    https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/may/25/you-are-not-going-to-die-from-covid-19/

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Good news (please see the accompanying table)! If you are under 65, in reasonably good health and do not have a vitamin D deficiency, you have only a tiny chance of dying from COVID-19. And if you are younger than 34, your chances of dying from the virus are so small as to be almost statistically undetectable. On the other hand, if you are 85 or older, are in a nursing home, have serious health problems and a vitamin D deficiency, you may be in real danger if you are exposed to the virus — but only a tiny portion of the population is in such a condition.

    The U.S. population is about 330 million, and the number of people who die each year from all causes is about 2.85 million or a bit less than 1 percent. To date, less than 100,000 people in the United States have died from COVID-19 or three-hundreds of 1 percent. (The peak in deaths appears to have already occurred but even if the number of deaths doubles from the current level, which is most unlikely, the total will be well under one-tenth of 1 percent).

    [​IMG]

    Political leaders have shut down much of the world economy on the basis of bad information and the failure to ask the right questions. Any action to try to stop the spread of the virus should have been accompanied with a competent estimate of how many net lives would be saved by the action.

    Net lives means how many people would die from COVID-19 compared to all of the additional lives lost through delayed diagnoses and treatments of cancer, heart disease and all other ailments due to the COVID-19 shutdown. The number of additional suicides and the misery of losing tens of thousands of small businesses, and the loss of liberty also needed to be factored in. Very little of any of that was done.
    Early in the year, the leaders of the World Health Organization (WHO) said the virus was unlikely to be transmitted from human to human (given its animal origin) and probably would not be a big threat. It soon became apparent that WHO had been wrong, and the threat was real. The folks at WHO were soon exposed as Chinese puppets — Communists lying? Who would have thought? A group out of Imperial College in the U.K., promoted a model that forecast 2 million or so deaths in the U.S. and millions elsewhere from the virus.

    This caused panic among the medical, political and media elites, which resulted in the worldwide shutdown. The model turned out to be deeply flawed, overstating the likely death toll by over 20-fold (aka gross incompetence, or worse).

    The fraudulent model was neither closely examined initially, nor rejected because it served certain political and media interests. Political opponents of President Trump were quick to blame him for not acting quickly enough, while ignoring the fact that when he shut down China travel on Jan. 31, they had criticized him for overreacting.

    The media loved the story because fear sells newspapers and increases TV ratings, and they could blame it on the hated Mr. Trump. But as is typical with the many in the media, they did not think beyond stage I, and as the economy was needlessly sent into the tank, advertisers withdrew. Circulation and ratings may be up, but fewer advertisers are paying the freight, so many of those who promoted the panic are and will be losing their jobs. Ah, divine justice.

    Serious scholars, like Professor Anne Marie Knott of Washington University in St. Louis, a mathematician who also understands economics, has prepared a very clear short presentation, “Why you haven’t caught COVID-19,” explaining how the data demonstrates that most people, especially the young, will never contract the virus and for those who do, most will have a totally benign or mild reaction.

    Her presentation may be found on YouTube at: Anne Marie Knott: Why you haven’t caught COVID-19. Again, the only real danger is for a very small percentage of people over 65, except for those 85 and older, who have other serious problems. Ms. Knott’s analysis clearly shows that the costs of the shutdown are greatly exceeding the benefits.

    Mr. Trump, the political leaders in both parties, and particularly the mainstream media were too easily seduced by well-meaning “experts” like Dr. Anthony Fauci. Most of the medical experts, understandably, have a very narrow focus and do not fully consider total costs and benefits of their recommendations and actions.

    Now that we have sufficient global data and “petri dish” experiments (from U.S. Navy and commercial cruise ships that were quarantined for more than 14 days) to understand the real risks to various groups) there is no longer justification for most restrictions on those under 65. Resources should be concentrated on the elderly with underlying conditions — and the rest of humanity should be allowed to go free and resume normal lives.

    MY COMMENT

    ABSOLUTELY. Unless you are over 84 and have health issues, your highest risk of dying from COVID is .07%. As to reopening and the economy......the genie is out of the bottle. People are free in many states and intend to stay that way. We are NOW seeing many more positive days in the markets than negative. It is now clear that the "new normal, will simply be the "old normal". We are not there yet but we are well on the way to being there. RIGHT NOW......as I post this stock futures are UP over 200 points. You never know short term, we could be in for a real BOOMER this week. I suspect, however, that we will see some profit taking at least one day this week. Two down, two to go.
     
  2. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    The markets have MUCH HIGHER potential for good news going forward over the next 6-12 months. Primarily because we STILL have a good ways to come back from the impact of recent events on the economy. HOWEVER....we have made good progress and could........emphasis on "could".....see "year to date" turning positive for the averages some time over the next month or two.

    If I was the DICTATOR of the markets this is the story that I would mandate as the story of the day to set market direction:

    Fed’s Bullard sees jobless rate returning below 10% by year end

    https://www.bondbuyer.com/articles/feds-bullard-sees-jobless-rate-returning-below-10-by-yearend

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard predicted the U.S. economy will recover from the highest unemployment since the 1930s with a rapid rebound that will push the jobless rate below 10% by December.

    Bullard, in a television interview Tuesday with Fox Business Network, said the business shutdowns imposed due to COVID-19 can’t go on too long without risking much worse economic outcomes.

    “Growth right now is probably the worst it’s ever been” with much of Wall Street predicting a “minus 40%” contraction in second-quarter economic growth, Bullard said. “The third quarter very likely, right behind the worst quarter, will be the best quarter of all time on the growth perspective.”

    Although the jobless rate was 14.7% last month, “I think we will be under double digits by the end of the year,” he said.

    The St. Louis Fed president’s view is more optimistic than much of Wall Street. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect unemployment to be 10.3% in the fourth quarter.

    Businesses can shut down for 90 or 120 days but need to resume operations after that or risk being permanently closed, which would bring lasting damage to the economy, Bullard said.

    “What you are risking here is that this morphs into a financial crisis, which makes things much worse” and that “morphs into a depression scenario.”

    Bullard doesn’t vote on monetary policy this year. He and other Fed officials have said the central bank will keep interest rates near zero for an indefinite period while the economy recovers."

    MY COMMENT

    TOTALLY AGREE. We will see an erratic, yet, explosive recovery. As to the second and third quarters......lets get all the EXTREME negative predictions out there and locked in to peoples thinking. Just as it was for the first quarter, I believe the general markets will be VERY FORGIVING of the second and third quarter numbers. There should be NO surprises on the NEGATIVE side of things since everyone is expecting the worst. this MIGHT create an opportunity for a tiny bit up UPSIDE surprise.

    EVERY TIME I see some article citing a poll of ECONOMISTS.....I nearly break out laughing. Talk about a group of people that.....in general....have absolutely NO CLUE about real world economics or investing or the markets. Personally......I dont consider the study of ECONOMICS a science AT ALL. Most of the BS that is spouted by economists is simply hindsight statistics or........MODELS.........and..........we ALL know about the accuracy of models.
     
  3. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    VERY interesting....very local....real estate data I am seeing in my area. There are 13 homes in my "little" subdivision (3000 homes) that are listed over $1MIL. They range from just above $1MIL to a high of about $6MIL. Of those 13 homes......8 are pending. The HIGH END of the real estate market here is ON FIRE. ONE reason......a total lack of inventory. Of 3000 homes we have about 32 actively for sale. For ALL homes in this subdivision......time on the market.....is WAY DOWN.

    Our neighborhood (3000 homes)......as well as the smaller components of the neighborhood.....has become very diverse over the past 10-15 years. A mixture of every culture and race you can imagine. The FUTURE of America......and......not a bad thing. This area is quickly becoming STRATIFIED based on INCOME level, NOT race or origin.

    We have been in an EXTREME sellers market for years now. There are going to be some really SPOILED homeowners when this extremely unusual sellers market period ends.

    I will be on the road to an auction house today in a neighboring city about two hours away. The side benefit of the drive is the fact that our favorite Mexican restaurant is in that city and has now reopened. A really OLD TIME place.......I have been eating in that restaurant since it opened in 1955. OK....YES....I was a kid than...I am not THAT old!!!!

    SO.....you guys keep the market fires burning today. It is YOUR FAULT if we end up DOWN.
     
  4. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    Crazy. The market is actually stronger today than last year at this time. So if you didn’t know nothing about nothing and you’d look at the charts you’d ask yourself “hmm I wonder what happened to the market around that time period when it took a dive for 2 months”...
    And the answer would be, well sir, when the economy was sound and there were almost no deaths related to covid and no more than 5% unemployment and businesses were thriving - the markets tanked!
    And now, that there is chaos everywhere, unemployment, and covid combined, now sir, the market has recovered.
    My biggest question is - did all of those folks that sold off their entire portfolios in feb- March end up buying it again at the bottom? I sure hope so!
    I would be very disappointed if those folks simply cashed out and handed the cash grub to the usual suspects aka financial institutions, banks and the likes.
    Guess we’ll never know
     
  5. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Well......I know. It will take many of them one to three years to feel comfortable and get back into stocks and funds. Some will NEVER get back in.

    I remember people after the near banking collapse of 2008/2009. I was still seeing posts 2 or 3 or 4 years later about the coming collapse and being afraid to get back in. The BIG thing I remember from that time period and for the next 11 years was people going on and on about the coming HYPER INFLATION. ACTUALLY.....not just coming.....many were convinced that it was already happening. I used to debate with a guy on my last forum about inflation. He was convinced it was happening.......I was seeing that we were in a deflationary environment. We are....STILL....in a world wide deflationary environment.
     
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  6. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I UNDERSTAND the modern media's need to focus on "blood and guts" and sensationalism in their stories. They DESPERATELY want those clicks and eyeballs. In my opinion, kind of a self-defeating exercise in futility, since the more they lower their standards and become HECTORING NAGS and all political opinion all the time, the more they drive away viewers. BUT....there is plenty of good news out there......even for investors......and especially for long term investors. Here is some:

    5 Reasons To Be Optimistic About The Stock Market

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/michae...timistic-about-the-stock-market/#4eb23d876700

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    With all the coronavirus coverage, the tenor of the news flow has been unusually dour this year. That may explain the success of John Kransinki’s YouTube program, which only reports “good news.”

    It took just two months for the Some Good News (SGN) channel to amass over 2.5 million subscribers. Krasinski and his network of star pals created a series of viral clips, including Brad Pitt’s cameo as a weatherman.

    A bidding war quickly erupted to buy the show, which ViacomCBS won.

    Equity investors can take a cue from Krasinski’s show, because it usually pays to see the sunny side in the stock market. But it can get tricky at cycle turns, when markets and the economy seem detached. If you’re caught in this fog, here are five reasons to be optimistic.

    #1: Virus data is improving

    The number of coronavirus cases in the U.S. rose 1.2% on Wednesday to 1.69 million, according to data collected by Johns Hopkins University and Bloomberg news. That was below the average daily increase of 1.4% over the past week.

    While the number of new infections remains high, the outbreak is clearly decelerating. When the U.S. tested a record 441,000 people on Monday, the percent testing positive fell to a new low of 4.3%.

    [​IMG]
    The Market Ear

    U.S. states are exiting lockdown despite stable or even rising case loads. The impact of the epidemic has been milder than feared, and it’s possible that new localized outbreaks can be contained without massive social controls. Goldman Sachs notes “Early Openers” have yet to see higher incidences of the virus.

    Meanwhile, Dr. Anthony Fauci believes there’s a “good chance” a vaccine may be ready by November or December.

    #2: High frequency economic data is trending up

    If you blinked, you may have missed it. The recession, I mean.

    Activity and confidence numbers suggest the recession has troughed.

    While the world economy is still battered, bruised, and will take time to fully recover, there are some encouraging signs.

    • Apple Mobility Data is trending up
    • Credit card spending is accelerating
    • Mortgage applications are rising
    • Air travel and restaurant bookings are picking up, albeit from low levels
    • New-home sales unexpectedly rose in April
    • Consumer confidence stabilized in May
    The U.S. economy appears set to turn the corner on the Covid-19 recession as businesses quickly reopen across the country,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics.

    #3: Money supply is surging

    In January, I said policy factors would be the main driver of asset prices in 2020. The coronavirus pushed that theme into hyperdrive.

    The Fed started expanding its balance sheet in the fourth quarter of 2019. Then, the amount of new money creation went parabolic in March. When money supply exceeds nominal GDP growth, as is presently the case, excess liquidity makes its way around the system, bidding up asset prices.

    Money supply growth is outpacing GDP

    [​IMG]
    Source: Gavekal

    Silverlight Asset Management, LLC
    The liquidity surge won’t automatically fix all the solvency issues. That said, it’s hard to be bearish against this type of liquidity backdrop.

    When money supply has exceeded GDP growth by a significant margin in the past—i.e. in 2002 and 2010—it foreshadowed major gains in equity indices. Currently, the ratio resides at an all-time high of 22.9.

    #4: Fiscal stimulus is ramping

    Policy makers around the world are ramping up economic stimulus packages.

    Japan just announced $1 trillion in new aid to households and businesses. The package unveiled Wednesday puts the total amount Japan will spend combating the virus at 234 trillion yen ($2.18 trillion)—approximately 40% of Japan’s GDP. The overall package is approaching the size of the United States’ $2.3 trillion aid program.

    The European Commission also rolled out a new $825 billion package. Using debt that will be repaid with EU-wide taxes charged until 2058, the Commission plans to distribute €500 billion in grants and €250 billion in loans to help the continent’s economies recover.

    The plan spearheaded by Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron shows the continent may be approaching a “Hamiltonian Moment,” reminiscent of the historic agreement between Alexander Hamilton and Thomas Jefferson on public borrowing. Fiscal policy convergence in Europe could prove to be a big deal, setting the stage for lower risk premiums in that market going forward.

    In other words, this may be an opportune time to take a shot at some downtrodden European stocks.

    #5: Tepid sentiment amid a powerful rally is bullish

    Ken Fisher wrote in a recent RealClearMarkets column:

    Dread makes people forget one simple truth: Bull markets always follow bear markets—but start sneakily, when battered investors don’t expect it. With expectations already ultra low, virtually any outcomes boost stocks. In route, most investors disavow any rebound as a sucker’s rally. They over emphasize bad news but spin potential positives into negatives. That’s the Pessimism of Disbelief.

    Fisher offers an important perspective here. Too often, investors mistakenly perceive good news to be a normal part of how bull markets evolve. Not so.

    Paradoxically, the best time to invest is usually when the volume of bad news nears a crescendo.

    Markets rise when the unfolding economic reality exceeds expectations. It’s easier to exceed expectations when they are low, as is presently the case. In the latest survey by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), only 33% reported a bullish outlook for stocks.

    Don’t fall victim to the Pessimism of Disbelief.


    Optimists beat pessimists in life and markets. Stay prudent, but never lose sight of that truth.

    MY COMMENT

    YES.......EXACTLY. If you are totally negative on the future, than WHY are you investing in stocks or funds? NOW is the time for reason and logic. For those that are TRULY long term investors.....we are STILL way below the market highs achieved earlier this year. Whenever, or whatever, the market low happens to be as a result of this little mess.......we have a lot of room for UPSIDE GAIN going forward. It just depends on your time horizon. For money that has less than a 3-5 year time horizon.........I would ask myself.........WTF......why am I exposing this short term money to stock market risk. As USUAL......this little event will SEVERELY clarify the thinking of those that dont understand or appreciate investing according to risk tolerance.......and/or.......dont understand the danger of investing short term money in risk assets.
     
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  7. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    I've been binge watching Firing Line shows with William F. Buckley, Jr. Here's one with Milton Friedman that is relevant today and seemingly to your discussions.

     
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  8. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    THANK YOU.....Emmet Kelly for the input.

    REALLY NICE way to end the week today. Account is very much in the GREEN. PLUS as an added bonus.......Beat the SP500 by .18%.

    DOW

    Today 25383.
    52 week range 18,214 - 29,569.
    Five day gain, this week (Friday to Friday, Monday was a holiday) +3.75%.
    One year change +1.97%
    Year to date (-11.06%)

    SP500

    Today 3044
    52 week range 2192 - 3394
    Five day gain, this week (Friday to Friday, Monday was a holiday) +3.01%
    One year change +9.39%
    Year to date (-5.77%)

    ANOTHER great week. Dow and SP500 both up over +3% this week. Week by week we continue to RACK UP the gains. We NEED these gains to build up a little cushion for the rest of the year.
     
  9. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY. This OLD myth......did not....happen this year. In May the SP500 gained +4.53%. In my opinion, this is ANOTHER one of those investing myths that is simply FOOLISH to follow.

    Why 'Sell in May' Doesn't Pay: Fisher Investments Debunks This Centuries-Old Myth

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/why-sell-may-doesnt-pay-191826962.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    Stock investing has a rich history that stretches back centuries. Investors have learned many lessons from that history, but sadly Fisher Investments has seen many misconceptions that are not grounded in historical facts remain alive and well. One misguided investing strategy comes from the adage, "Sell in May and go away, and don't come back until St. Leger Day." This saying stems from 19th century brokers' tendency to take long summer vacations, limiting trading and liquidity on the London Stock Exchange until September's St. Leger Day horse race. While this is an old custom, some investors still believe "Sell in May" is a viable long-term investing strategy. But the summer months' returns are still positive a majority of the time, and historical data show selling in May every year leaves a lot of potential returns on the table.

    2020 has been a turbulent year for stocks, and even investors who don't typically adhere to "Sell in May" may exit markets to try to avoid downside volatility. But even in rocky times, "Sell in May"--or June or July--can be dangerous. Whether due to seasonal investing adages or otherwise, selling out of stocks introduces the difficult decision of when to re-enter the market. If you're out of the market, you risk potentially missing out on positive returns, but if you get back in too early you may be in for more downside ahead. And too often, Fisher Investments has watched investors' emotions get the best of them, causing them to sell after a downturn has already occurred and miss out on a strong initial rebound. "Sell in May" is just one example of how deviating from your long-term plan risks setting yourself back from reaching your goals.

    Summer Returns Are Positive on Average

    Most folks can't afford to take summer vacations from May to September year in, year out, and data show their investments likely shouldn't stop working then either. The premise behind a long-term "Sell in May" strategy is that summer's returns aren't great compared to the rest of the year, so you can skip those bummer summers and buy back in for the better winter and spring months. But in Fisher Investments' experience, this can be very dangerous for long-term investors. Regardless of which months on average post higher or lower returns, stocks are still up more often than not, and missing out on any part of the year could mean incurring huge opportunity costs. For example, dating back to the S&P 500's inception, during the six-month calendar period from May through October, US stocks have posted a healthy 4.2% average return.[i] That average includes some big up and big down months. You could try to get out, and maybe you'll miss a correction--a sentiment driven downturn of roughly -10% to -20%. But that would likely be luck. You could just as easily end up sitting out while stocks charge higher, but your portfolio doesn't.

    Let's suppose the summer months really did post lower relative returns compared to other parts of the year. Well, lower returns can still be positive--and you risk missing out on those positive, though potentially muted, returns if you sit out completely. And even muted returns are likely much better than cash or investing in low-yielding US Treasurys. Fisher Investments' analysis has shown that stocks generally rise much more frequently than they fall, and this is true in the summer as well. In fact, from May through October, stocks have been positive roughly 72% of the time.[ii] Sitting those periods out completely and having your portfolio in cash would have worked well for you only about 28% of the time. The majority of years, however, selling in May would have been a losing strategy, and one that would likely set you back on the path toward your long-term financial goals.

    Time in the Market, Not Timing the Market--We believe at Fisher Investments

    "Sell in May" is a market timing strategy. Such strategies are risky because if you are wrong you likely miss out on positive market returns, and even small mistakes can quickly add up and lead to long-term investing results that substantially lag the market. Let's look at what a "Sell in May" strategy does over several decades (a reasonable investment time horizon for retirement) versus staying invested.

    Exhibit 1 shows how an initial $100,000 investment fares depending on whether you "Sell in May" (in this case on April 30th) and buy back in on November 1st, or you stay invested through the full year. A hypothetical initial investment of $100,000 held for the entire period from 1980 to 2018 would have grown to nearly $6.5 million. But if you followed a "Sell in May" strategy, you would end up with slightly less than $1.8 million.

    Exhibit 1: "Sell in May" and Watch A Good Chunk of Your Returns Go Away

    [​IMG]
    Fisher Investments charts
    Source: Global Financial Data, Inc., as of 04/30/2019. S&P 500 Index total returns from 12/31/1979 to 12/31/2018. Sell in May Strategy assumes no returns between April 30th and October 31st of each year.

    A huge difference! If you were fully invested you would have realized annualized growth of 11.3%, whereas if you sold stocks on April 30th every year and bought back in on October 31st, your annualized growth would only have been 7.6%. In the early years of this hypothetical example the discrepancy between the two strategies is quite small. Over the years, however, the differential annual returns compound and the two strategies diverge sharply.

    Fisher Investments has seen that market timing strategies such as "Sell in May" tend to fail for several reasons. In the short term, stocks are unpredictable and volatile. Even though stocks' long-term average annualized return is roughly 10%, markets are highly uneven from year-to-year and month-to-month. Volatility and uneven returns, however, are part of the price investors must pay in order to realize the very strong long-term returns offered by the stock market. If you try to dodge negative volatility, it is very likely that you will also miss out on significant periods of positive volatility--when stocks climb upwards quickly.

    For long-term investors, rather than trying to time the market, Fisher Investments recommends time in the market: staying invested through all seasons and across the market cycle. Doing this successfully demands patience and discipline. It is hard not to sell when stocks are down sharply, whether in a bear market or a correction. Uneven market returns and short term volatility can test your patience. Exhibit 1, however, is a potential source of resolve, something to consider when you are tempted to sell out of the market. It is a reminder that historically markets have gone up far more often than they have gone down and by a much greater margin. Staying invested--time in the market--lets you realize the compounding benefits of such long-term growth.

    MY COMMENT

    It is AMAZING to me that this OLD MYTH from the 1800's is STILL around and often touted by the financial media and others year after year. The DATA supports staying fully invested year round. GUESS WHAT.......market timing does not work. AND....superstition based market timing is IRRATIONAL. The REALITY is that the markets between May and October are positive 72% of the time. I have posted about the SP500 being positive about 72% of the time YEAR ROUND in the past. Why in the world would ANYONE want to be out of the markets during a time when the markets are POSITIVE 72% of the time? I like the new slogan that is mentioned in this little article:

    "Sell in May and watch a good chunk of your returns go away"
     
  10. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    LOL. BIG LOL. I came on this morning and The Long Term Investor thread was GONE. I figured it got hacked, deleted, banned, or something else. WTF. I finally noticed that Mark22 had gone on a posting BINGE yesterday and it was on the second page of threads, buried 30 or 40 down the list of threads, on the Investing board.

    Purpose of this post....just to get it back on the first page where I can find it.

    ALL of Mark 22's late night posts yesterday seem to be on topic for each thread. Looks like he captured the entire first page or more of the Investing board in a frenzy of late night posting that covered a span of about 3-4 hours. That takes a BIG EFFORT to post on 30-40 threads.....on topic....over that span of time.
     
    #1290 WXYZ, Jun 1, 2020
    Last edited: Jun 1, 2020
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  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Interesting day. I was curious if the current events would impact the markets. APPARENTLY NOT. A GOOD start to the week for the markets and my accounts. GREEN with gains today and a SLIGHT beat of the SP500 by +.06%.
     
  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    LOTS of money looking for a place to go. Bonds.....no. Safe interest instruments.....no, rates are too low. that leaves stocks and funds.......and.....that is where it is going to go.

    Wall Street advances on signs of economic rebound

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...es-on-signs-of-economic-rebound-idUSKBN2391E7

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks posted modest gains on Tuesday as market participants looked past widespread social unrest and pandemic worries to focus instead on lifting lockdown restrictions and signs of economic recovery.

    Cyclical stocks like financials and industrials gave the biggest lift to the S&P 500 and the Dow, while tech shares boosted the Nasdaq.

    “There is that rotation going on as traders add more risk to their portfolios with securities that have been beaten up and should benefit as the economy recovers,” said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment strategist at Inverness Counsel in New York.

    “That’s what the market has been reaching for lately - the battle between growth and value for leadership of the market.”

    The Nasdaq, the S&P 500 and the Dow have been approaching their all-time closing highs in recent weeks and are now about 3%, 9% and 13%, respectively, below record closing levels.

    Nationwide, violent protests over the death of a black man at the hands of law enforcement officers continued unabated, even as President Donald Trump vowed to unleash the military on the demonstrators.

    “Most of the focus is on the social unrest,” Ghriskey added. “We all hope calmer heads will prevail and we will address the issues at the root of it all. But this shouldn’t have any impact on the markets.”

    But the green shoots of economic rebound driven in no small part by massive stimulus packages from Capitol Hill and the U.S. Federal Reserve has helped fuel investor optimism.

    Market participants now await Friday’s crucial jobs report from the Labor Department for a clearer picture of the extent of economic damage wrought by mandated lockdowns. The report is expected to show the unemployment rate surging to a historic 19.7%.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 157.21 points, or 0.62%, to 25,632.23, the S&P 500 gained 11.65 points, or 0.38%, to 3,067.38 and the Nasdaq Composite added 8.39 points, or 0.09%, to 9,560.44.

    Of the 11 major sectors in the S&P 500, all but consumer staples and communications services were in the black.

    The ARCA Airline index, whose constituents have been hit particularly hard by COVID-19-related restrictions, was up 3.3% boosted by a slow but steady increase in commercial air traffic.

    Southwest Airlines Co rose 2.6% after extending buyout and paid leaves to employees in what its chief executive called an effort to “ensure survival.”

    Shares of Slack Technologies Inc advanced 2.3% after Cowen initiated coverage of the workspace communication platform with an “outperform” rating.

    A report that Western Union has made an offer to buy smaller rival MoneyGram International Inc sent the money transfer companies shares up by 11.0% and 30.1%, respectively.

    Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 2.60-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.52-to-1 ratio favored advancers.

    The S&P 500 posted 11 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 70 new highs and four new lows.

    MY COMMENT

    EXACTLY......this is why I was pushing weeks ago to get fully invested. HOWEVER.......there are still many.....in fact the majority of.........articles on the NEGATIVE side of things. yet another positive indicator in my opinion. It will be interesting the first little correction or market drop that we have some time over the next few months. The NEGATIVE pushers will be out in FORCE going on and on about how this is the retesting of the lows, etc, etc, etc. I will say it now in advance.........I DONT BELIEVE IT. As to the current events of this past week........IRRELEVANT to the markets.

    As I post this heading to the close in 13 minutes.....we are +150 on the DOW.
     
  13. Trahn Thompson

    Trahn Thompson Active Member

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    Today I rose from my investing coma. Sold all Ford holdings and moved funds into Home Depot. Held Ford for 6 years and sold at a loss. Same old same old crap from Ford always trying to catch up, was time to move on! My last rise from coma investing, Nokia to Amazon so far is up 35% so we'll see how this one works out. Happy Investing!
     
  14. Trahn Thompson

    Trahn Thompson Active Member

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    My old self almost won today!! Was thinking of holding funds and try to time the market. I do think we will have many buying days as the DEMS try to steal the election, with event after event until election day!! Kind of BURN THE NATION DOWN TO REGAIN POWER! But I have life to live and don't have time for that crap, so a smooth dump and buy and move on. Happy Investing!
     
  15. Bigmalx

    Bigmalx Member

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    So the Dems or stealing the election, WOW. What do you call it when the Republicans do it?
     
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  16. Bigmalx

    Bigmalx Member

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    Thanks for the post, I really enjoy the articles and especially your comments. Thanks for sharing.
     
  17. Trahn Thompson

    Trahn Thompson Active Member

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    Yep, call it the same both ways. Happy Investing!
     
  18. Bigmalx

    Bigmalx Member

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    I can agree to that. Just so you know, I'm not against all Republicans, just like I'm not for all Democrats. I like to lean more for RIGHT. Thanks for sharing your post. Look forward to seeing hiw this market turns out.
     
  19. Bigmalx

    Bigmalx Member

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    Hello all, I have a question and would love any comments. I am new to investing and think I jumped in to fast before I found this site. How many stocks and etf's are too many. I have both and some have the same holdings. I am thinking about selling the efts that have the same holding as the stocks and keeping the etfs that has stocks that I don't hold. Comments, opinions, or whatever. Thanks.
     
  20. Trahn Thompson

    Trahn Thompson Active Member

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    Bigmalx, IMOA you want to buy stocks and ETF's like you never want to sell them. My stocks and S&P 500 ETF's are doubled up on purpose. I also have some mid cap and small cap ETF's and own no stock mirroring those funds. A low cost S&P 500 fund held long term, with reinvested dividends will win always. So my current view is own the market,(mid cap, small cap, large cap ETF's), with being doubled up on S&P 500 American Companies. Happy Investing!
     
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