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Stock Market Today: July 27th - 31st, 2020

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, Jul 24, 2020.

  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of July 27th!

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
    [​IMG]

    Major Indices End of Week:
    [​IMG]

    Major Futures Markets on Friday:
    [​IMG]

    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
    [​IMG]

    What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

    • Monday

    Earnings: Albertson’s, F5 Networks, Hasbro, NXP Semiconductor, LVMH, Avery Dennison, Legg Mason, Ryanair, SAP, TrueBlue, National Oilwell Varco

    8:30 a.m. Durable goods

    • Tuesday

    Earnings: Amgen, Visa, 3M, Pfizer, McDonald’s, Starbucks, Mondelez, Chubb, Aflac, DR Horton, Raytheon, Invesco, MSCI, Rockwell Automation, Altria, Laboratory Corp, Martin Marietta, Roper Tech, Harley-Davidson, Canon, Nissan, Centene, Polaris, Sherwin-Williams, Corning, Boyd Gaming, Akamai, Lattice Semiconductor, Advanced Micro Devices, Visa, Juniper Networks

    FOMC meeting begins

    9:00 a.m. S&P/Case-Shiller home prices

    10:00 a.m. Consumer confidence

    10:00 a.m. Housing vacancies

    • Wednesday

    Earnings: Facebook, General Electric, Boston Scientific, Anthem, Sanofi, Barclays. General Dynamics GlaxoSmithkline, Boeing, General Motors, Norfolk Southern, Qualcomm, Yum China, PayPal, Cheesecake Factory, Spotify, Owens Corning, Barclays, Deutsche Bank

    8:30 a.m. Advanced economic indicators

    10:00 a.m. Pending home sales

    2:00 p.m. FOMC statement

    2:30 p.m. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell briefing

    • Thursday

    Earnings: Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Procter and Gamble, Comcast, Ford, Shake Shack, Dunkin Brands, Cigna, Dupont, Eli Lily, Northrop Grumman, Textron, Valero, ConocoPhillips, Comcast, Kellogg, AstraZeneca, Kraft Heinz, Southern Co., Stryker, Generac, Stanley Black and Decker, Marsh and McLennan, Electronic Arts

    8:30 a.m. Initial claims

    8:30 a.m. Real GDP Q2

    • Friday

    Earnings: Caterpillar, Merck, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Illinois Tool Works, Colgate-Palmolive, Lazard, Booz Allen Hamilton, LyondellBasell, Weyerhaeuser, Newell Brands

    8:30 a.m. Personal income

    8:30 a.m. Employment cost index

    9:45 a.m. Chicago PMI

    10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment
     
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  2. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stocks Sink As Silver Soars To Best Week In 40 Years
    FANG Stocks dared to have their first consecutive weekly close lower since the March collapse...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Which pushed Nasdaq to its second weekly loss in a row and underperformance this week... After Monday's meltup, it was downhill (and remember this has typically been the pattern post VIX options expiry)...

    [​IMG]

    Notably, Nasdaq has reversed at a key historical level of richness relative to the S&P...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Perfectly testing and failing at the dotcom peak...

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    AMZN was monkeyhammered late in the week (again) but managed to cling to green on the week...

    [​IMG]

    TSLA was twatted...

    [​IMG]

    Boeing didn't help as emergency FAA headlines hammered it...

    [​IMG]

    Is this the start of the herd move out of the high-flyers?





    And as stocks were sold, 'safe-havens' like bonds, bullion, and bitcoin (and ethereum) were bid...

    The long-end of the yield curve dropped around 10bps on the week with the short-end flat...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    10Y Yield back near intraday lows

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Cryptos screamed higher this week dominated by Ethereum...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Pushing the biggest altcoin to February highs...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Gold gained notably on the week with spot back above $1900, back near 2011 record highs...

    [​IMG]

    But while gold gained significantly, this week saw silver surge over 17% to $23...

    [​IMG]

    Its best week in 40 years (since The Hunt Brothers tried to corner the silver market)...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    And investors appeared to reject the USDollar (falling for the 4th straight week)...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Sending it lower for the year...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Precious metals dominated the week in commodity land with copper stalling and crude sliding as the week progressed...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Dr. Copper has stopped signaling a resurgence in growth, stalling at key levels once again...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Silver is now outperforming gold YTD...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Finally, WTF is going on here... (stocks at record highs, bond yields at record lows)...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    And one has to ask what the message of the market is...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Are the Sino-US tensions raising doubts about the dollar and sending the world into 'real' money?
     
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  3. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2020-
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    S&P sectors for the past week-
    [​IMG]
     
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  4. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Biggest Companies Reporting Earnings Next Week
    Fri, Jul 24, 2020

    The earnings slate continues to ramp up next week with 712 total companies scheduled to report. In the table below, we show the largest stocks by market cap that are set to report quarterly results. On Monday, there will be no company with a market cap above $100 billion reporting with the largest companies being Alexandria Real Estate (ARE) and multiple banks. On Tuesday, payment processor Visa (V) will be out with earnings in addition to Pfizer (PFE), Amgen (AMGN), McDonald's (MCD), and Raytheon (RTX). Visa has historically averaged the strongest stock price reaction to earnings of these names but it has gapped down for six straight quarters. That will be followed by another payment processor, Paypal (PYPL) on Wednesday. In addition to Paypal, Facebook (FB) is also scheduled to report that same day. While both stocks have averaged over 2% gains on earnings days historically, ServiceNow (NOW) has seen an even stronger performance with an average gain of 3.64%. Another major earnings report that will be widely watched is Boeing (BA) to get a gauge on how demolished travel demand has affected the company. On Thursday, three of the world's largest stocks will also be out with earnings: Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOG). Each one has averaged a 1%+ gain on earnings days. Apple (AAPL) has seen some of the strongest results in recent history with last quarter snapping a streak of four consecutive triple plays. On Friday, two of the largest energy stocks, Chevron (CVX) and Exxon Mobil (XOM), will round out the week and July's earning calendar. Both stocks have historically averaged declines on earnings days.

    [​IMG]

    Dollar Weakness May Continue

    The US dollar was remarkably strong during the first quarter of 2020, benefitting from the flight to safety and rallying to nearly a 10% year-to-date gain at the stock market’s low point on March 23. However, as equity markets have recovered, and the US has continued to fight the COVID-19 pandemic, the dollar has given up nearly all of those gains. We think this trend may continue, and if so, it would have important implications for a range of asset classes.

    As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, a more diversified basket than the commonly cited DXY Index, is nearing a critical uptrend line. A break of this support could mean that weakness seen over the past few months is more than just an unwinding of the flight to safety. Through Wednesday, the index was down more than 1% for the week and tracking toward its fourth straight weekly loss.

    This isn’t just a technical story though. As we explored last month, rising twin deficits have historically been followed by a weaker dollar, meaning the fundamentals support this move as well.

    [​IMG]

    The commodity rally is another reason to believe the market may be looking toward a weaker dollar. Commodities are typically viewed as having an inverse relationship with the dollar since the dollar is effectively the denominator of a hard asset. Gold prices are up more than 20% year to date, copper just traded to its highest level in more than two years, and silver prices have appreciated 28% this month alone.

    As for the implications of a weaker dollar, according to LPL Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick, “a weaker US dollar may be a slight negative for US consumers’ buying power, but for investors’ portfolios the implications are overwhelmingly positive. Commodities are rallying, US multinational companies benefit from foreign buyers being able to afford more of their goods, and international stocks do well as their underlying currencies appreciate.”

    Recent history bears this out. The last calendar year that saw a significant dollar decline was 2017 when the Bloomberg Dollar Index fell more than 8%. The S&P 500 Index rallied more than 19% on a price return basis; however, international stocks fared even better. The MSCI EAFE Index and MSCI Emerging Markets Index gained 22% and 34%, respectively, and 2017 represented the only year since 2012 that either outperformed the US.

    Silver Gets the Gold for YTD Performance
    Wed, Jul 22, 2020

    In last night's Closer, we took a look at the massive rallies of late in the precious metals space. Gold (GLD) reached its highest level since 2011, but silver's (SLV) performance on the day was even more of a sight to behold with gains in the top 1% of all days since SLV began trading in 2006. Silver (SLV) rose 6.15% for its best day since March 24th when the metal rose 7.96%. Whereas the silver to gold ratio has been in a constant downtrend over the past decade (indicating underperformance of silver relative to gold), yesterday's big gains led to a breakout of this downtrend. With SLV trading higher by over 5% yet again this morning, that downtrend is being broken even more significantly, and that is even with SLV off the pre-market highs above $21.

    [​IMG]

    As recently as the final days of June, SLV was actually sitting on a loss year to date. That was a far cry from the performance of some of the best-performing assets of the year at the time like the Tech heavy Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) which was up over 14% and the long term Treasuries ETF (TLT) which was up over 21.5%. Silver's yellow cousin, gold, was likewise sitting on a sizeable gain of 16.6%. Pivot ahead to today and the picture is very different. Around this morning's premarket highs when SLV was trading above $21, it actually topped QQQ, TLT, and GLD as the best performing asset in 2020. That is even with each of these other ETFs also trading higher.

    [​IMG]

    Hot Julys Often Bring Late-Summer/Autumn Buys
    [​IMG]
    Despite persistent pandemic setbacks, bleak economic and corporate numbers, geopolitical tensions, civic unrest and a knock-down, drag-out election battle, the U.S. stock market has proven rather resilient. After suffering the shortest bear market in history that lasted only 40 days the velocity and strength of the V-shaped rally off the March 23 bear market low has been impressive.

    Massive fiscal stimulus, the return of ZIRP (zero interest rate policy), vaccine promise and the boon of the “stay-at-home” economy have sent the market higher again here in July with NASDAQ tacking on new all-time highs, though the Dow and S&P 500 continue to struggle. As of yesterday’s close this put DJIA up 4.6%, S&P 500 up 5.7% and NASDAQ up 6.4% for the month of July at yesterday’s close, qualifying this as a “Hot July Market”.

    Gains of this magnitude for July, however, have frequently been followed by a late-summer or autumn selloffs and better buying opportunities than now. In the past, full-month July gains in excess of 3.5% for DJIA have been followed historically by declines of -7.2% on average (-4.7% median decline) in the Dow with a low at some point in the last 5 months of the year. The low in 2018 came a bit late, but it was just 2 days into winter. There were also prior lower prices in late October and November.

    Climbing COVID cases, hospitalizations and deaths have forced rollbacks and pauses of economic reopening plans and travel restrictions. Coupled with an uptick in jobless claims and other troublesome economic readings and forecasts as well as elevated valuations, exuberant sentiment, technical resistance and seasonal weakness, stocks are ripe for a pullback. Today’s selloff: case in point. This will likely set up a great buy as the $13+ trillion flows through the global economy into US stocks.
     
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  5. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 7.24.20-
    [​IMG]

    Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]

    Here are the current major indices rally levels from correction low as of week ending 7.24.20-
    [​IMG]
     
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  6. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

    [​IMG]
     
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  7. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stock Market Analysis Video for July 24th, 2020
    Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon
    (VIDEO NOT YET POSTED!)

    ShadowTrader Video Weekly 7.26.20
     
  8. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stockaholics come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

    ========================================================================================================
    ========================================================================================================

    It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

    I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead! :cool:
     
  9. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here is a look at this upcoming week's Global Economic & Policy Calendar-

    (GLOBAL ECONOMIC AND POLICY CALENDAR NOT YET POSTED!)
     
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  10. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead.

    ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

    Monday 7.27.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Monday 7.27.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 7.28.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 7.28.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 7.29.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 7.29.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 7.30.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 7.33.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Friday 7.31.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 7.31.20 After Market Close:
    NONE.
     
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  11. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead-
    ($AMZN $AAPL $AMD $FB $SHOP $BA $PFE $MCD $UPS $MMM $PYPL $HAS $GE $SPOT $V $APHA $EBAY $MA $SBUX $RTX $AZN $F $SAP $QCOM $CNC $MO $XOM $PG $ABBV $GOOG $TDOC $RPM $GILD $NOW $KHC $DXCM $ABCB $BUD $JBLU $CLF $PINS $ANTM $WING $LRCX)
    [​IMG]

    If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here-
     
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  12. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    https://www.forbes.com/sites/barryc...0m-ransom-to-end-two-day-outage/#65d974d63164

    Garmin is reportedly being asked to pay a $10 million ransom to free its systems from a cyberattack that has taken down many of its services for two days. The navigation [and fitness wear] company was hit by a ransomware attack on Thursday, leaving customers unable to log fitness sessions in Garmin apps and pilots unable to download flight plans for aircraft navigation systems, among other problems. The company’s communication systems have also been taken offline, leaving it unable to respond to disgruntled customers.
    Garmin employees have told BleepingComputer that the company was struck down by the WastedLocker ransomware.
    The ransom note tells the recipient to email one of two email addresses to “get a price for your data”. That price, Garmin’s sources have told BleepingComputer, is $10 million.


    This is one of the features of working from home -- it is more difficult to protect your company's network and data. We'll see if this becomes a bigger issue.
    Funny that all this customer workout data is only worth $10 million. And the company is not eager to even pay that price. I think we can conclude these hackers are NOT from Silicon Valley, because if they were tech bros they would know that personal data is worth $1 billion at the least.

     
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  13. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    Silver is Shreking Up, big green candle in the 45-minute chart.
     
  14. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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  15. Vdubman

    Vdubman Well-Known Member

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    So glad I didn’t sell my bars at $18

    gut feeling it would hit at least $30 and there is no resistance till $35 right now so looking like it may actually hit that. Silver bugs are getting their itch.
     
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  16. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    There was a fire at my condo yesterday afternoon and seems like many units including mine will be without power for the next 48 to 96 hours o_O My phone out of battery soon, so good luck and make some money this week guys. I will be back when the power is back on :)
     
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  17. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    oh my. crazy cause i literally just posted to the hurricane thread over in the cocktail lounge here to get an update on your situation after that hurricane passed through hawaii:
    https://www.stockaholics.net/threads/the-hurricane-thread.6092/page-3#post-129684

    stay safe and thanks a ton for that update! keep up posted once you're back online. hope nothing serious. :)
     
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  18. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Thanks Cy. Yeah we actually got pretty lucky with the hurricane. It looked like it will bring severe weather all along but then the path of the hurricane changed and we pretty much dodged the bullet. It is sunny now right here :)
     
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  19. Vdubman

    Vdubman Well-Known Member

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    Platinum lagging the metals sector the last few months. Looking for a breakout above $1030
     
  20. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    man, i miss @cactus (former looooong time member of the community going way back to the early HSM days) he was our resident goldbug. i really missed his input on the PMs big time. curious to hear what he is thinking about the yellow now that we've officially taken out the 2011 ATH today.

    at least this time around it did not take 27+ years to top the prior peak :p

    [​IMG]
     
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