Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of July 20th! This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: Major Indices End of Week: Major Futures Markets on Friday: Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: What to Watch in the Week Ahead: Monday Earnings: IBM, Halliburton, Zions Bancorp, Cal-Maine Foods, Steel Dynamics, Royal Phillips Tuesday Earnings: Coca-Cola, Lockheed Martin, Texas Instruments, Snap, CIT Group, Novartis, Synchrony Financial, UBS, Philip Morris, Paccar, Prologis, United Airlines, Intuitive Surgical, Capital One, Interactive Brokers, Teradyne, iRobot, Canadian National Railway 8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed nonmanufacturing PMI Wednesday Earnings: Microsoft, Tesla, Discover Financial, CSX, Chipotle, Whirlpool, Kinder Morgan, Equifax, NorthernTrust, Biogen, Nasdaq, Check Point Software, KeyCorp, Baker Hughes, Thermo Fisher, Canadian Pacific Railway, Netgear, Suncor 9:00 a.m. FHFA home prices 10:00 a.m. Existing home sales Thursday Earnings: AT&T, Travelers, Intel, Twitter, Blackstone, ETRADE, Dow, Union Pacific, American Airlines, Citrix, Kimberly-Clark, Alaska Air, Freeport-McMoRan, Hershey, PulteGroup, Mattel, Verisign, AutoNation, AllianceBernstein, Fifth Third, AutoNation, Roche Holdings, Reliance Steel, Air Products, Daimler, Unilever, Nucor, Quest Diagnostics, Yamana Gold, Skyworks Solution 8:30 a.m. Initial claims Friday Earnings: American Express, Verizon, Honeywell, Schlumberger, Equinor, Bloomin’ Brands 9:45 a.m.Manufacturing PMI 9:45 a.m. Services PMI 10:00 a.m. New home sales
Silver Soars As Nasdaq Underperforms Most Since 2009 Well that was not supposed to happen... The Nasdaq 100 suffered its worst weekly underperformance relative to the S&P 500 since 2009... Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg Notably, the reversal this week in Nasdaq relative to the S&P was at a key level from the past and found support at that level... Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg And Nasdaq dared to put in a negative week (near its worst since March) - despite all the other majors green on the week (Small Caps outperformed)... Likely overheard today... China also had an ugly week... Source: Bloomberg Most of the damage to FANGs was done on Monday after its gap up, but Friday did not show the usual buying rampage... Source: Bloomberg While FANGs were dumped, Biotechs were bid for the 3rd week in a row to new record highs... Source: Bloomberg It appears TSLA momo has lost its mojo (pinned at $15000 for 3 days)... As those far OTM options expire worthless... Source: Bloomberg Banks were mixed with GS and JPM outperforming... Source: Bloomberg Momentum dramatically underperformed value this week (first time in 6 weeks)... Source: Bloomberg Shorts were squeezed this week on Tuesday and Wednesday but were ominously quiet Thurs/Fri... Source: Bloomberg This won't end well... options traders are at their most complacent since the peak of the dotcom bubble... Source: Bloomberg Treasury yields ended the week lower (no thanks to three decent selling surges).. Source: Bloomberg The dollar ended the week lower (3rd week lower in a row) to its lowest weekly close since early March... Source: Bloomberg Is the dollar about to breakdown hard? Source: Bloomberg Gold suggests it should... Source: Bloomberg Cryptos ended the week lower with Bitcoin the least worst of the bunch... Source: Bloomberg Commodities ended the week higher, led by a big move for Silver... Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg Silver's outperformance vs Gold has pushed the ration between the two down to its lowest since February (and back below the key 100x level)... Source: Bloomberg Finally, The Fed Balance Sheet rose very modestly in the last week... Source: Bloomberg And it appears the S&P future short squeeze is almost over... Source: Bloomberg And don't forget, this whole market game is easy, right! Just buy the f**king overnight session... Source: Bloomberg What happens next? Source: Bloomberg Sleep Well.
Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2020- S&P sectors for the past week-
The Good and the Bad from Earnings This Week Fri, Jul 17, 2020 Earnings season began at the start of this week with Pepsi (PEP) and the first of the major US banks and brokers reporting Q2 numbers. It was a light week with only 32 companies reporting through Thursday, but in the coming weeks, we'll see 100+ reports on multiple trading days. From our Earnings Explorer tool, below is a recap of the results from this week's earnings reports. 78% of companies that reported this week beat consensus analyst EPS estimates, while 72% topped consensus sales estimates. Those are both strong numbers. In terms of future projections, 16% of companies raised guidance, and not one company lowered guidance. That's rare even with the very low number of reports so far. While guidance and beat rates were strong, investors still used earnings reports as an opportunity to sell. The average one-day share price change this week for companies in reaction to their earnings reports was a decline of 0.57%. All of those declines came on the initial gap down at the open, however. After averaging a gap down of 0.76% at the open of trading following the earnings release, the average stock that reported gained 0.21% from the open to the close. (The gap down of 0.76% and the open to close gain of 0.21% adds up to the full-day decline of 0.57% mentioned earlier.) Below is a table showing all 32 companies that reported Q2 numbers this week (through Thursday). The list is sorted by one-day share price reaction from best to worst. Alcoa (AA) had the best price reaction to earnings this week with a gain of 6.39% yesterday. WNS Global (WNS) put up the second-biggest gain at 6.36%. The next best-performing stocks in reaction to earnings this week only gained 3%+ -- USB and HOMB. Other stocks that reported this week that gained in response to their earnings reports include Morgan Stanley (MS), Goldman Sachs (GS), Taiwan Semi (TSM), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), and JP Morgan (JPM). On the downside, AngioDynamics (ANGO) saw the worst share price reaction to earnings this week when it fell 11.51% on Thursday. Sleep Number (SNBR) was second-worst with a one-day drop of 9.19% yesterday as well. While MS, GS, and JPM all posted gains in reaction to earnings this week, other banks like Citi (C), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Bank of America (BAC) reacted negatively with each falling 4% or more. Retail Sales Beat Again Retail sales data for June was reported on Thursday, handily beating expectations for the second consecutive month. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, June saw a 7.5% increase month over month, compared with Bloomberg’s consensus expectations for a 5% gain. This comes on the heels of a more than 18% gain in May, but also following by far the lowest reading ever, a 14.7% decline in April. Pent-up demand and the continued easing of lockdowns during June likely contributed to the large increase, which saw sales rise across most categories. Sales spiked 8.2% at auto dealers, but even sales excluding autos and gas rose 6.7%. Clothing store sales more than doubled (+105.1%) while sales in the hard-hit food services and drinking places climbed 20%. “Consumer spending is still far below pre-pandemic levels and many of the real-time data we are monitoring have begun to level off in the past month,” said LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “We remain encouraged by the strong rebound in May and June, but would expect more gradual gains for retail sales in the second half of the year.” Why A Potential Democrat Sweep May Not Be A Market Worry Based on the latest polling data, there’s growing consensus that former Vice President Joe Biden potentially may win the election and Democrats possibly may sweep Congress. Some might think this could be a negative for stocks, as a higher corporate tax rate that reduces earnings could be part of the Democratic platform. Early writers of the US Constitution were worried about one party having too much power that could enable factions in Washington, DC, to enact more extreme policies and political ideals, upsetting the carefully balanced apple cart. As we noted in our recently released Midyear Outlook 2020, stocks historically have performed quite well when Congress has been split, although stocks actually have done better than most probably realized when the Democrats were in full control. “Higher corporate taxes are quite likely should we see a potential Democratic sweep,” said LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “But to blindly say stocks will do poorly is quite a stretch, as historically stocks have done rather well under this .” As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the S&P 500 Index has been higher 9 of the past 10 times and 15 of the past 18 times Democrats controlled both the White House and Congress. Although LPL Research anticipates a likely split Congress in November, with the list of overall worries growing, we don’t think a potential Democratic sweep should be at the top of investors’ list of worries. Best of July Likely Over NASDAQ’s mid-year rally came to an end on Tuesday, July 14. During the rally’s 12-day stretch beginning on the third to last day of June through the ninth trading day in July, NASDAQ gained 4.7%. This is well above its average performance since 1985 but less than half of its best showing from 1999. At NASDAQ’s high close during the rally on July 10 it was up 6.0%. Historically around this time in July is when the market has begun to weaken as NASDAQ’s full-month average performance is just 0.9% since 1985. In the following chart, July’s seasonal pattern over the last 21 years has been plotted with July 2020, plotted on the right axis for comparison through yesterday’s close. This July’s well above average performance so far called for a second, larger range in order to aid in the comparison. Over the last 21 years the market’s trend has been lower beginning right around mid-month through the close. DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 & 2000 have on average given back some or all of their first half of July gains.
Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 7.17.20- Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices- Here are the current major indices rally levels from correction low as of week ending 7.10.20-
Stock Market Analysis Video for July 17th, 2020 Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon ShadowTrader Video Weekly 7.19.20 Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
Stockaholics come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!- ======================================================================================================== Stockaholics Daily Stock Pick Challenge & SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (7/20) <-- click there to cast your daily market vote and stock pick! Stockaholics Weekly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll (7/20-7/24) <-- click there to cast your weekly market vote and stock picks! ======================================================================================================== It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these! I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!
Here is a look at this upcoming week's Global Economic & Policy Calendar- (GLOBAL ECONOMIC AND POLICY CALENDAR NOT YET POSTED!)
Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead. ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time*** Monday 7.20.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Monday 7.20.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 7.21.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 7.21.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 7.22.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 7.22.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 7.23.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 7.23.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 7.24.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 7.24.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!
And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead- ($TSLA $MSFT $KO $SNAP $LMT $HAL $TWTR $T $AAL $LUV $INTC $BMRC $PM $CMG $VZ $PLD $NDAQ $NVS $UAL $MAN $LOGI $IBM $CALM $OGI $AXP $PHG $BIIB $TSCO $LII $ONB $TMO $SYF $TXN $KEY $CIT $MKTX $CTXS $ISRG $CMA $CHKP $LLNW $HCA $CDNS) If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here- Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning July 20th, 2020 <-- click there to view!
Eyeing that second round of stimulus to help keep the market propped up. I have a feeling it will be a last minute deal next week before the current stimulus runs out.
wow - so much for Tech lagging last week. Anyone think we see SPY get into the gap this week... with how things are going we might close that gap tomorrow
Apparently people didn’t think Amazon made so much money last Q with everyone quarantined and were quite happy k owing they did.
People waiting to see what tsla comes out with APT will probably blowout the earnings next week it started going up late today so did CLIR it started moving in the afternoon news came out last month on deal with XOM maybe others