Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of December 30th! This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: Major Indices End of Week: Major Futures Markets on Friday: Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD: What to Watch in the Week Ahead: N/A.
Bonds, Stocks, & Silver Surge Over Xmas Week But Dollar Dives To 5-Month Lows "They're keeping the rates down so that everything else doesn't go down... The only thing that is strong is the artificial stock market." - Trump, 9/5/16 It's been a year of buying everything: S&P's best year since 1997 Gold's best year since 2010 Bond's best year since 2014 Source: Bloomberg Remember, correlation is not causation... especially when your salary depends on it...because this rally in stocks is all about the fun-durr-mentals...The S&P 500 is up almost 30% and earnings expectations are down almost 5% on the year... Source: Bloomberg Chinese stocks were unchanged on the week... Source: Bloomberg US majors started weak today, rebounded, then ended weak... Nasdaq ended its winning streak... US Small Caps lagged on the week as Nasdaq soared (the S&P is on the verge of its best year since 1997)... Nasdaq bounced perfectly off 9,000 intraday... The Dow bounced off unchanged twice... AAPL had a more volatile day than normal... was the guy in charge of buybacks taking some time off? Still doesn't really matter eh? Source: Bloomberg We also note that AAPL rejected the Fib 161.8% extension of the late 2018 collapse... Source: Bloomberg Something has changed in the last couple of days with AAPL...hedging the huge gains into year-end? Source: Bloomberg Even TSLA was red today, but has a long way to catch down to un-exuberant bonds... Source: Bloomberg VIX has notably decoupled from stocks this week... Source: Bloomberg The open was yet another short squeeze but it didn't last and stocks dumped. But were rescued into the European close by another squeeze... Source: Bloomberg Treasury yields ended the week 3-5bps lower Source: Bloomberg 10Y yields broke back below 1.90%... Source: Bloomberg The Dollar plunged today (biggest single-day drop since Sept 4th)... Source: Bloomberg This is the 3rd weekly drop in the last 4 weeks, to its weakest close since July... Source: Bloomberg As the dollar has slipped, Yuan has drifted very quietly sideways, apparently pegged around 7.00... Source: Bloomberg The pound inched higher this week after last week's bloodbath, ending back at pre-election-spike levels... Source: Bloomberg Bitcoin was unchanged on the week with Bitcoin Cash surging today to lead on the week; Ripple and Ethereum lagged... Source: Bloomberg Bitcoin has been relatively stable for two week weeks (despite the pump and dump)... Source: Bloomberg Commodities were all higher as the dollar tumbled, but PMs trumped crude and copper... Source: Bloomberg Silver topped $18 on the week (though fell back below today)... And gold topped $1500 and held it... Silver has outperformed gold for the 3rd week in a row... Source: Bloomberg And WTI Crude has accelerated beyond its uptrend channel... Copper has now risen for 6 straight weeks - the longest streak since Sept 2017... Source: Bloomberg Finally, investor greed has reached peak-extreme... And hedge fund exposure to the US equity market is exploding... This won't end well
Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2019- S&P sectors for the past week-
January Almanac: Average Performance Slips in Presidential Election Years January has quite a reputation on Wall Street as an influx of cash from yearend bonuses and annual allocations typically propels stocks higher. January ranks #1 for NASDAQ (since 1971), but fifth on the S&P 500 and sixth for DJIA since 1950. It is the end of the best three-month span and holds a full docket of indicators and seasonalities. DJIA and S&P rankings did slip from 2000 to 2016 as both indices suffered losses in ten of those seventeen Januarys with three in a row, 2008, 2009 and 2010 and then again in 2014 to 2016. January 2009 has the dubious honor of being the worst January on record for DJIA (-8.8%) and S&P 500 (-8.6%) since 1901 and 1931 respectively. Last year, January was downright stellar after the worst December since 1931 for DJIA and S&P 500. In election years, Januarys have been weaker. DJIA and S&P 500 slip to number #8 while S&P 500 average performance dips negative. NASDAQ slips to #3, but average performance remains respectable at 1.7%. Last Trading Day of the Year: NASDAQ Down 15 of Last 19 Last-minute tax-loss sales, old sayings such as “year ends make great exits,” a desire to start with a clean slate; who knows exactly the answer, but the last trading day of the year has turned bearish over the last nineteen years. Since 2000, NASDAQ has the worst record, down 15 of 19 after advancing every last trading day of the year from 1971 to 1999. Russell 2000 has one additional gain for a record of 14 losses in 19 years. S&P 500 and DJIA are only slightly better. Average declines on the day range from 0.43% to 0.19% 2019 - A Most Positive Year Tue, Dec 24, 2019 52.3%. That's the percentage of all trading days throughout the S&P 500's history since 1928 that have been up days for the market. Even though just barely more than 50% of trading days have been up days, it has translated into a price change of 18,157% for the S&P 500. Casinos are wildly profitable using a similar format. They only have to win slightly more than 50% of all bets made to make a tremendous amount of money. The beautiful thing about investing in the stock market is that you get to be the casino for once! 2019 has been a great year for the S&P 500 with a gain of more than 28%. As shown below, the index only needed to trade higher on 59.3% of days to generate a 28% gain. But positive days occurring 59.3% of the time in a trading year is actually very rare. Only five other years since 1928 have seen up days more consistently with the most recent coming in 1995 when 61.9% of all trading days were positive. Dollar Doldrums Fri, Dec 27, 2019 The President has been vocal for months now in his criticism of the FOMC and how monetary policy has resulted in a dollar that is too strong relative to other global currencies. Based on trends in the dollar during Q4, though, the President may just be getting his wish. The chart below shows the performance of the Bloomberg US Dollar Index throughout 2019. After hitting a YTD high on the first day of Q4, the index has steadily trended lower, falling by more than 2.5% and into the red for the year. After breaking its uptrend earlier this month, the Bloomberg Dollar Index saw a quick bounceback in the middle of the month that ran out of steam right at its former uptrend line. While it was able to maintain that level over the last couple of days, as markets around the world re-opened for trading today, the bottom has really fallen out, and the index is on pace for its lowest close since July 18th. If the recent weakness in the Dollar Index is a precursor for what's the come in 2020, investors will be better served to focus on companies that generate a large percentage of their revenues outside the United States, and one great tool to search for companies which generate the largest percentage of their revenues outside of the United States is our International Revenues Database. Lots of Winners in 2019 December 26, 2019 It was hard not to stumble into a winner if you owned stocks in 2019. With just four trading days left in the year, the S&P 500 Index has returned over 31%, its best yearly return since 2013. Whether you owned diversified stock portfolios of growth or value stocks, small or large cap stocks, domestic or international stocks, the chances are good that you ended up with returns of more than 25% from your stock portfolios. “This year has been truly rewarding for investors with primary risk assets (stocks) and risk-reducing diversifiers (bonds) performing well,” said LPL Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch. “This year’s stock and bond market gains more than made up for a lackluster 2018 when all major asset classes suffered losses.” Here are some of this year’s winners and losers: U.S. stocks: The S&P 500’s 2019 gain topped developed international and emerging markets, as the MSCI EAFE Index and MSCI Emerging Markets Index returned 22.1% and 18%, respectively. We would attribute U.S. stock market leadership to superior economic growth, a strong U.S. dollar, and a surging technology sector. Large cap stocks: Large and midcap stocks performed better than small caps in 2019 based on the Russell indexes. Better profit growth underpinned large cap strength as the large cap Russell 2000 Index saw profits decline this year compared with a slight profit gain for S&P 500 companies (source: FactSet).The market’s preference was clear as large caps bested small in 10 of the 11 S&P GICS sectors. Growth stocks: Growth dominated value this year, as the Russell 1000 Growth Index outpaced its value counterpart 9 out of 11 months, and continues to hold a December lead. As with large caps, the market’s preference was clear with value stocks beating growth stocks within only one of the 11 S&P sectors. Technology’s strength powered growth leadership, while value was weighed down by energy weakness. Technology stocks: Technology led all S&P sectors in 2019 with a nearly 50% total return, well ahead of communication services, the next best sector with a 32.9% return. Technology’s gains were led by the hardware group and Apple’s 80% gain, although strength was broad-based with S&P subindustry gains of 52% for semiconductors and 47% for software. Financials’ slight outperformance lifted value and provided a slight offset.
Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 12.27.19- Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices- ...and here are the rally levels from current prices-
Stock Market Analysis Video for December 27th, 2019 Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon ShadowTrader Video Weekly 12.29.19 Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek (VIDEO NOT YET POSTED!)
Stockaholics come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!- ======================================================================================================== Stockaholics Daily Stock Pick Challenge & SPX Sentiment Poll for Thursday (1/2) <-- click there to cast your daily market vote and stock pick! Stockaholics Weekly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll (12/30-1/3) <-- click there to cast your weekly market vote and stock picks! Stockaholics January 2020 Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll <-- click there to cast your monthly market vote and stock picks! Stockaholics Q1 2020 Quarterly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll <-- click there to cast your quarterly market vote and stock picks! Stockaholics 2020 Yearly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll <-- click there to cast your yearly market vote and stock picks! ======================================================================================================== It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these! I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!
Here is a look at this upcoming week's Global Economic & Policy Calendar- (GLOBAL ECONOMIC AND POLICY CALENDAR NOT YET POSTED!)
Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead. ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time*** Monday 12.30.19 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE. Monday 12.30.19 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE. Tuesday 12.31.19 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE. Tuesday 12.31.19 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE. Wednesday 1.1.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE. (U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF NEW YEAR'S DAY.) Wednesday 1.1.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE. (U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF NEW YEAR'S DAY.) Thursday 1.2.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE. Thursday 1.2.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 1.3.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 1.3.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE.
And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead- () If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here- Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning December 30th, 2019 <-- click there to view!
FIVE is green so far today with the Dow/S&P down ~45 bps. Trying to hold this line of support, but not in the clear yet.
Hope you guys had a great year in 2019 and made some money. Also wish everyone a Happy New Year and will make even more money in 2020
hny! and here is the final chart share of this year and of this decade- i believe it was marcy who first brought this up in here a few weeks ago, but the 2010s will become the first decade ever that did not see a recession.
spx flirting with the green prints here as we head into the final 45 minutes of 2019 let's see if we can close green again on this day. it's been a rarity over the years. in fact the spx has only closed green 7 times in the past 20 years on this final trading day of the year
HNY everyone Let’s make some money in 2020. Should be an interesting year with the election coming up in November. Not sure if trading will remain kinda light until next Monday, I guess we will see tomorrow
