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Stock Market Today: April 6th - 10th, 2020

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, Apr 3, 2020.

  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of April 6th!

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
    [​IMG]

    Major Indices End of Week:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Major Futures Markets on Friday:
    [​IMG]

    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
    [​IMG]

    Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

    • Tuesday

    10:00 a.m. JOLTS

    3:00 p.m. Consumer credit

    • Wednesday

    2:00 p.m. FOMC minutes

    • Thursday

    8:30 a.m. Weekly jobless claims

    8:30 a.m. PPI

    10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment

    10:00 a.m. Wholesale trade

    • Friday

    Stock market closed for Good Friday

    8:30 a.m. CPI

    2:00 p.m. Federal budget
     
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  2. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Oil Jumps, Stocks Dump As 'Helicopter Money' Sends USA Risk Soaring
    The story of the week is fourfold:

    1. Helicopter money begins... and the sovereign risk of the USA soars

    2. Oil has best week ever on hopes of supply cut.

    3. Stocks sink as any rebalance flow support evaporated.

    4. Lockdown effects are starting to be seen in labor and survey data
    'Helicopter Ben' unleashed hell...

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    But in context, there's a long way to go...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    And despite energy's gains, US equity markets were carved up this week, with Small Caps clubbed like a baby seal (5th weekly loss of last 6), as any month-/quarter-end rebalance flow support evaporated entirely... (NOTE broiadly speaking US markets rallied into the EU close then sold off every day this week),,,

    [​IMG]

    Over the past two weeks however, The Dow is still up around 9% and Small Caps just over 2%...

    [​IMG]

    And finally, the impact of the lockdowns is starting to hit as US Macro Surprise Index crashes by the most ever

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    * * *

    The 'Virus-Fear' Trade is back in a big way...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    After last week's hope-filled bounce, big banks bloodbath'd this week...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    And virus-impacted sectors were also slammed...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    "Most Shorted" stocks are down 6 days in a row

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    VIX and the market decoupled this week (VIX notably lower as stocks sank)...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Credit markets were sold all week, despite The Fed's support...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Treasuries were bid this week with 10Y outperforming, 2Y underperforming...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    10Y Yields fell back below 60bps...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Note - yields did spike at the end of the day after The Fed announced another taper...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    The week's yield drop pushed everything across the curve back near cycle yield closing lows...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    The Dollar was up 4 of the 5 days this week (and 3rd week of last 4)

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    A late-week bid pushed most of the cryptospace into the green with Bitcoin Cash leading the week...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Commodities were practically unchanged on the week despite the dollar gains, but obviously oil was the outlier with its best week ever...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Interestingly, oil's surge coincides with its price relative to silver dropping below 2x (2 ounces of silver / barrel of oil) once again...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Gold Spot and Futures have started to decouple again as physical delivery fears resurface...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Where does gold go next?

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Finally, the question is - is this bounce still viable?

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Not if fun-durr-mentals have anything to do with it...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg
     
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  3. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2020-
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    S&P sectors for the past week-
    [​IMG]
     
  4. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    A Technical Look at Market Internals

    Following last week’s more than 10% gain, the S&P 500 Index is tracking toward another weekly loss, its fifth of the last seven. This has many investors wondering if a retest of the lows may be in the cards for US equities. As we explored in our How Markets Bottom post, two of the bear markets we believe show the most similarities to our current one did retest or undercut the lows after the worst of the selling.

    “Whether or not we get a retest is an open question,” said LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “But we believe we’ve seen the worst of the selling, and we will be watching to confirm that fewer individual stocks are making new lows on a further pullback in the indexes.”

    [​IMG]

    As the LPL Chart of the Day shows, although the S&P 500 made its low on March 23, more stocks actually bottomed a week earlier on March 16, when more than two-thirds of the individual stocks in the index hit a one-year low. Regardless of the direction of the S&P 500 over the coming days, we want to see this trend of fewer stocks making new lows continue.

    Road to Recovery Playbook Factor #1: COVID-19 Case Update

    Factor #1 in our Road to Recovery Playbook is finding confidence in the peak of COVID-19 cases in the United States. At LPL Research we are monitoring this factor daily, and we wanted to provide an update into what we are seeing. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, while the number of new cases in the United States has continued to climb, the number of new cases seen outside of the US has begun to drop in recent days. In fact, Italy, the worst-hit country in terms of total deaths from the virus, reported on Tuesday that new cases hit a two-week low.

    [​IMG]

    Can April’s Top-Month Record Extend Market Rally?
    [​IMG]
    April marks the end of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. The window for the seasonal MACD sell signal opens on April 1st. The unprecedented speed of the current market selloff and current bear market would appear to have made this year’s signal insignificant. This could be the case, but it is far too early to say if the worst of the bear market is over. Double-digit DJIA losses during the “Best Six Months” have only occurred three times (ending in April in 1970, 1974 and 2009) since 1950. In 1970 & 2009 the “Worst Six Months” were positive while in 1974 DJIA slide another 20.5%.

    April 1999 was the first month to gain 1000 DJIA points. However, from 2000 to 2005, “Tax” month was hit, declining in four of six years. Since 2006, April has been up fourteen years in a row with an average gain of 2.3% to reclaim its position as the best DJIA month since 1950. April is second best for S&P and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971).

    The first half of April used to outperform the second half, but since 1994 that has no longer been the case. The effect of April 15 Tax Deadline appears to be diminished with numerous bullish days present on either side of the day. Traders and investors are clearly focused on first quarter earnings and guidance during April. This year, guidance will likely be the greatest focus, as first and second quarter earnings are likely to be disappointing as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.

    Historically bullish election-year influences (the second-best year of the four-year presidential election cycle) have the exact opposite effect on April. Average gains since 1952 are approximately half of the average gain of all years since 1950 for DJIA and S&P 500. Largely due to a 15.6% loss in 2000, NASDAQ’s typical strength in all Aprils since 1971 is transformed into an average loss in election years.


    This data is important because thus far the number of COVID-19 cases has conformed to Farr’s Law of Epidemics, exhibiting a somewhat predictable bell curve normal-like distribution. Formulated in the 1800s by British epidemiologist Dr. William Farr, these laws predict that epidemics normally follow a pattern of sharp increase, a peak, and then a decline back to a baseline.

    The distributions of both new COVID-19 cases and related fatalities in China and South Korea have exhibited this behavior and appear to have ridden out the initial outbreak cycle. The City of Wuhan, China, which was the initial epicenter for the virus, reported on March 19 that it had zero new cases—showing us that the curve can be flattened and there is light at the end of this dark tunnel.

    “The market’s bounce last week may have been in anticipation of some of these more positive data points regarding the virus,” said LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “While US cases continue to climb, the more countries that reach their peak, the more clarity we gain into what that timing may look like for the United States. Investors have historically been rewarded for investing during these crisis events, and we believe the time for suitable investors to consider adding some risk to their portfolios may be approaching.”

    Down Best Six Months Not Encouraging
    [​IMG]
    The depth of this waterfall decline may be too deep for the market to rebound quickly. This bear market also put this year’s Best Six Months (November-April) at risk of being negative. The record of down Best Six Months is not encouraging and it reminds us of a salient quote from the Almanac from an old market sage, “If the market does not rally, as it should during bullish seasonal periods, it is a sign that other forces are stronger and that when the seasonal period ends those forces will really have their say.”— Edson Gould (Stock market analyst, Findings & Forecasts, 1902-1987)

    The table below of Down Best Six Month for DJIA since 1950 also suggests caution and patience is in order. Subsequent Worst Six Months (May-October) have averaged losses with only two decent years 1982 and 2009. The market bottom in August 1982 marked the end of the 1966-1982 secular bear market and came of the early 1980s double dip recession. Following the first back-to-back down Best Six Months since 1973-1974, the market hit a secular bear market low in March 2009. Market action in the rest of these years was rather grim.

    Sector Relative Strength
    Thu, Apr 2, 2020

    Over the past year, the Technology sector has been the most notable sector in terms of outperformance relative to the S&P 500. As shown in the charts from our Sector Snapshot below, the relative strength chart for Technology has been in a steady uptrend for the past twelve months without much interruption even while the decade long bull market was coming to an end. In fact, last week it was the first sector to exit oversold territory after every sector was oversold for 13 days. The other sectors have not been as lucky. During the recent sell off, the relative performance of most sectors, especially cyclicals like Energy, Financials, and Industrials, fell sharply (indicating even worse declines than the S&P 500). Consumer Staples and Health Care, on the other hand, have seen much stronger performance than the rest of the market.

    [​IMG]

    Consumers Turn Bearish on Equities
    Thu, Apr 2, 2020

    Tuesday's Consumer Confidence report managed to exceed expectations, but as we noted at the time, the survey for the March reports cuts off on the 18th, so as economic conditions turned south, sentiment levels also likely declined. One area of the report where sentiment already has seen a notable decline is in consumer sentiment towards stock prices. As shown in the top chart below, the percentage of consumers expecting stock prices to decline nearly doubled from 21.7% up to 39.2% while the percentage of consumers looking for higher prices dropped from 43.1% down to 32.3%. In the case of negative sentiment, the percentage of bearish consumers hasn't been this high since late 2012.

    Given the major shift in sentiment, the spread between bullish and bearish consumers has seen a major reversal falling from firmly positive (21.4) to firmly negative (-6.9). By this measure, the spread between bullish and bearish investors hasn't been this negative since February 2016.

    [​IMG]

    The Good, The Bad, and the Ugly Commodities in Q1
    Wed, Apr 1, 2020

    Very few assets have been winners recently, especially in the commodities space. As shown in the table below, no major energy or metal commodities (front-month futures) rose in March and gold was the only one to rise in the first quarter. The degree of those declines varied greatly. While gasoline and WTI futures (crude oil) were more than cut in half, gold and iron ore fell less than one percent in March. Considering iron ore's cyclical nature, that small decline is somewhat surprising but as for Q1, iron ore's performance was much weaker with a decline of over 10.5%. Granted, that is still a far better performance than copper which was down by more than twice that. Given the size of these declines, every one of the commodities highlighted below sits well off of its 52-week high. Gasoline and crude oil are the worst of these at 74.14% and 69.63%, respectively. As for where they finished the quarter relative to their 52-week lows, things are mixed. Gasoline, gold, and silver are off those lows by double-digit percentages while the rest are less than 10% away.

    [​IMG]

    As with many charts across assets, the technical picture of these commodities looks ugly. Almost every one has broken below significant support levels and safe-haven gold is the only one currently in anything other than a downtrend. Although it finished the month just off of the lows, crude oil fell all the way to its lowest levels since 2002 after crashing through support in February. The same can be said for gasoline. Natural gas remains a pain trade with the downtrend of the past several months still firmly in place.

    Given its safe-haven status, gold has again been an outperformer approaching some of its highest levels of the past decade during the risk asset rout of the past couple of months. But it has recently been a more volatile trade. The yellow metal has yet to break above resistance around 1,700/oz and has even fallen to support around the 50-DMA. Despite also having the precious metal status, silver has been a serial underperformer to gold. Silver never shared gold's rally over the past couple of months as it fell to its lowest levels since 2009.

    As for industrial metals, copper has been hovering around its lowest levels since the final quarter of 2016 after falling through the past year's support around $2.50. On the bright side, the technicals of iron ore have been slightly more constructive as it has still held up at support around $75.

    [​IMG]
     
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  5. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 4.3.20-
    [​IMG]

    Here are the current major indices rally levels from correction low as of week ending 4.3.20-
    [​IMG]

    Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]

    ...and here are the rally levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]
     
  6. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

    [​IMG]
     
  7. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stock Market Analysis Video for April 3rd, 2020
    Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon


    ShadowTrader Video Weekly 4.5.20
    Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
    (VIDEO NOT YET POSTED!)
     
  8. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stockaholics come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

    ========================================================================================================
    ========================================================================================================

    It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

    I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead! :cool:
     
  9. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here is a look at this upcoming week's Global Economic & Policy Calendar-

    (GLOBAL ECONOMIC AND POLICY CALENDAR NOT YET POSTED!)
     
  10. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead.

    ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

    Monday 4.6.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Monday 4.6.20 After Market Close:
    NONE.

    Tuesday 4.7.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 4.7.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 4.8.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 4.8.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 4.9.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 4.9.20 After Market Close:
    NONE.

    Friday 4.10.20 Before Market Open:
    NONE.

    Friday 4.10.20 After Market Close:
    NONE.
     
  11. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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  12. Vdubman

    Vdubman Active Member

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    Funny story. I didn’t realize crude closed at $29 last week
     
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  13. OldFart

    OldFart Well-Known Member

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    Futures pretty green at the moment.
    No telling what’ll happen when Europe opens though...
     
  14. Vdubman

    Vdubman Active Member

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    Wow up 3% right now. Crude down 6%.
     
  15. AverageJoesTrades

    AverageJoesTrades Well-Known Member

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    wow, didn't see that reaction happening - guess I should've just played crude. Figured the market would follow crude as it did a couple weeks ago.
     
  16. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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  17. Vdubman

    Vdubman Active Member

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    300k cases in USA and over 9k deaths in a month and week. Looking like it could easily surpass the common flu this year.

    It’s good to hear some good news on the virus slowing down hopefully. GL traders today.
     
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  18. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Good Monday morning Stockaholics and welcome to a new week, fresh start!

    Here is this morning's pre-market news thread for those of you wanting to get a quick read before today's open-
    [​IMG] <-- click there to read!

    Hope everyone in here has a great trading day and week ahead this week! :)
     
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  19. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Morning Lineup - 4/6/20 - A Good Start
    Mon, Apr 6, 2020

    Some relatively encouraging news over the weekend regarding the status of the COVID-19 outbreak in both Europe and the US has equity futures and other risk assets in rally mode this morning. In recent weeks, there has been some variability in weekend data, so that will make today's updates on the outbreak even more important. If the recent trajectory of case counts and deaths manages to hold, though, it would be one of the most encouraging trends we have seen in weeks.

    The S&P 500 and most sectors are starting out the week at oversold levels, but we've definitely started off prior weeks on a worse footing recently. In fact, two sectors (Consumer Staples and Health Care) aren't even oversold. If today's pre-market rally in the futures holds, we could finish off the day with no sectors at oversold levels. Wouldn't that be nice?

    [​IMG]
     
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  20. kyleh2k20

    kyleh2k20 New Member

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    Thanks a ton for the weekly kick off as always BB! I always look forward to this post every morning.
     
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