POLL: Will Santa come to town and deliver a rally this Christmas?

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by removedatuserrequest, Dec 21, 2022.

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Will there be a Santa Claus Rally this year?

Poll closed Dec 23, 2022.
  1. Yes. (Up!)

    44.4%
  2. Flat SCR. (+/-0.25%) or less.

    11.1%
  3. No. (Down!)

    44.4%
  1. removedatuserrequest

    removedatuserrequest Well-Known Member

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    So I haven't done a poll here in ages. With holiday season now fully upon us I thought it would be cool if we could have this Santa rally poll. Will Santa deliver with a SCR (Santa Claus Rally) this holiday?

    The official SCR that is gauged by Wall Streeters uses the final 5 trading days of the current calendar year and the first 2 of the new year. So going by that, the starting point for this particular poll wouldn't officially begin until this Friday, using Thursday's closing value in the cash SPX.

    It will run until the market close on Wednesday, January 4th. Thus, we won't know the final results of the SCR until after the close on that Wednesday.

    But, have no fear! I've made tracking the SCR super easy as I normally have by putting it up on a Google spreadsheet that you guys can all view. Which updates every few minutes w/o even a page refresh. :p

    [CLICK ME!]

    I've included some of the other major indices into the fray like the DJ30 the Nazzy and Rutty, etc. But, I believe the one that is officially used to gauge the SCR uses the cash SPX.

    So, anyway w/o further ado here. I'd be curious to hear if anyone thinks there will be a rally during this 7-day SCR period?

    To make things interesting here, let's call a successful SCR a gain in the SPX of over +0.25% at a bare minimum during the 7-day stretch. If the SPX ends either +/-0.25% or less then we'll just call it a FLAT SCR. :p

    Vote away. Will try to update things daily as we go, but no grantees as I'll be pretty busy during this holiday stretch until January. :p
     
    #1 removedatuserrequest, Dec 21, 2022
    Last edited: Dec 21, 2022
    stock1234 and Smokie like this.
  2. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    I voted yes for Santa Rally. My reasoning is nothing technical or even researched to any degree. I voted yes because....It is Christmas!! We have had such a year, that I am simply choosing to be optimistic and upbeat for Christmas. We have all year for the negative outlooks and reports, the FED, and so on. I am choosing the upbeat holiday outlook.

    Whatever happens, I hope that all here have a Merry Christmas where ever you may be. Come on Santa!!
     
  3. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    yes, santa's coming. he has to. i've been a good boy.
     
  4. Rayak

    Rayak Active Member

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    Does it matter? January and February will be a LOT more important than whatever happens with SCR...
     
  5. IndependentCandy14

    IndependentCandy14 Active Member

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    Howdy Smokie and Mr Emmett!

    I Share your Consensus.

    It’s been a Brutal Year in the Markets and We Deserve a Nice SCR Smokie.

    I too have been a Great Boy this Year Emmett! I Hope this SCR Rewards me with Presents and not Coal.

    -IndependentCandy14
     
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  6. IndependentCandy14

    IndependentCandy14 Active Member

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    Why Spoil the Christmas Spirit.
    We Will Move onto 2023 when it Arrives.
    LoL.

    -IndependentCandy14
     
    roadtonowhere08 likes this.
  7. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    This Historical Trend Debunks Predictions For Weak First Half Of 2023: Analyst
    Today 10:13 AM ET (Benzinga)Print


    The financial markets were in the doldrums for 2022, with every asset class experiencing sell-offs amid the macro challenges.

    One analyst, however, expects better times ahead.

    What Happened: Everyone expects the first half of 2023 to be bad for stocks, Carson Group's chief market strategist Ryan Detrick says, referring to all of the recession predictions in recent months.

    See also: Best Penny Stocks

    The economy has yet to reflect the lagging impact of the Federal Reserve’s successive rate hikes. To make matters worse, geopolitical risks continue to weigh down on the global economy.

    Detrick, however, noted that the first quarter in a pre-election year was lower only once since 1950. That means, in 17 of the 18 instances, the market clocked a gain for the quarter.

    "I've done this for more than two decades," he says. "Rarely have I ever seen everyone agree on something like everyone expects the first half of '23 to be bad for stocks."

    Santa Is Here: The official “Santa Claus rally” period starts Friday and the market has been higher over the seven sessions in the run-up to the year-end, six years in a row, Detrick said in a separate tweet.

    Since the 1970s, the streak hasn’t progressed to seven years, he said. The longest ever was ten in a row in the 1950s/60s, he added.

    I've done this for more than two decades.
    Rarely have I ever seen everyone agree on something like everyone expects the first half of '23 to be bad for stocks.
    Haven't heard many point out the first quarter in a pre-election year was lower only once since 1950 (up 17 of 18). pic.twitter.com/Kq9oUyOtgX

    — Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) December 21, 2022

    The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY), an exchange-traded fund that tracks the performance of the broader S&P 500 Index, is down 17.4% for the year-to-date period. Some heavily-weighted S&P 500 stocks, including Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), Amazon, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) and Alphabet, Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOGL) (NASDAQ: GOOG) have all chalked up huge losses this year.

    Wednesday, the SPY climbed 1.50% before ending at $386.23, according to Benzinga Pro data.

    Read next: Biggest Money Managers Are Selling Off $100B Of Stocks By Year's End, Says JP Morgan

    © 2022 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
     
  8. roadtonowhere08

    roadtonowhere08 Well-Known Member

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    Santa is bringing us a big old pile of coal this year.
     
  9. hitman

    hitman Well-Known Member

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    Next week a late stocking stuffer.
     
  10. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Its really cold, so coal is actually the perfect gift!
     
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  11. Rayak

    Rayak Active Member

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    This from the person who LIKED the post "Why Spoil the Christmas Spirit?"

    :)
     
  12. roadtonowhere08

    roadtonowhere08 Well-Known Member

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    Haha, my Christmas spirit and the market Christmas spirit have a very strong divergence at the moment :biggrin:

    To make myself feel more festive, I bought some VOOG :banana:
     
  13. roadtonowhere08

    roadtonowhere08 Well-Known Member

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    I did not think of that. Very true.
     
  14. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    I voted No, it probably mean the Santa Claus rally is now on :D
     
    #14 stock1234, Dec 22, 2022
    Last edited: Dec 22, 2022
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  15. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    At least give us some more coal!
     
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  16. removedatuserrequest

    removedatuserrequest Well-Known Member

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    Chillax… poll was only meant in good fun and not too super cereal jeebus.
     
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  17. removedatuserrequest

    removedatuserrequest Well-Known Member

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    just a super quick update to the scr as of friday's close:
    [​IMG]

    this will conclude at hump day's cash close.
     
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  18. removedatuserrequest

    removedatuserrequest Well-Known Member

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    holy bejesus forgot to log back in here to update this at the end of trade on hump day.

    here was the final result of the scr at wednesday's (1/4) close:
    [​IMG]

    grats to the following members that voted up:
    [​IMG]

    good calls gents :thumbsup:
     
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