I share these thoughts in hopes that others will respond with their own points of view. 5 years out, I see all the current players surviving. The company that I expect to be hurting the most in 5 years, is Chrysler; they will probably be on the cusp of another failure. My list is built on an assumption of transport electrification and transport as an automated service. Feel free to cut and paste my list with your own survival odds. 10 year survival: Ford - 35% GM - 55% Chrysler - 10% Tesla - 80% Audi/VW/Porsch/Skoda - 80% (because the German government will bail them out but they will make the jump to electrification) Toyota - 75% Nissan - 75% BMW - 55% Subaru - 20% Hyundai/Kia - 70% Volvo - 60% Mercedes - 40% 15 year survival: Tesla - 80% Google - 75% Other car manufacturers might survive if Google creates an API that will allow them to have Waymo capabilities in their cars.
I expected a few comments from this thread. I just wrote that I think the current auto industry will all be out in the street in 15 years with their only salvation being if they can purchase autonomous driving hardware from a 3rd party. Surely, a few folks want to tell me what a whacko I am?
I meant to get back to this thread after reading it. Haven't had time to respond yet. I think a lot of the auto industry is up in the air right now and will become increasingly dependent on the political scene in America. If Trump wins in 2020, there will not be a significant push towards electric vehicles for the next 5-6 years. If one of the Democrats gets the nomination, especially if it's a more left-leaning candidate, I could definitely see the auto industry being thrown for a loop. I think if the Democrats win the election there will be a lot more talk about mergers, acquisitions, etc. in order to consolidate development and share market space. For example, FCA almost partnered with Renault, but the rumor is that the Japanese government threw a wrench in those plans. That would have been huge for FCA. I doubt those talks are dead, but stalled for sure. I can't really make a prediction without knowing who will be running the Country. Assuming it's Trump again, which I'd expect, he'll continue pandering to the fossil fuel industry, rolling back emissions regulations, and there will not be a strong push towards electrification. That's not to say it won't continue creeping in that direction like it is now, but there will not be a huge push like there will be if someone like Bernie Sanders or a Jay Inslee took office (for example). I know you have great interest in Tesla. I personally think they'll thrive more if the industry keeps creeping towards electrification. If it becomes an all-out push to get to 100% electrification by 2024 or something like that, I think the bigger companies who have always been the behemoths will partner and continue to dominate the auto industry.
Our view is remarkably similar. That's why I made a 15 year prediction. It's almost impossible to make a 5 year prediction due to political influences. Even if a democrat wins 2020, I don't think they will have the stomach to decimate the automotive sector. If it comes to an all out push to achieve 100% electrification by 2024, whomever made the push will be killed and their head will be put on a pike. What's more, they will deserve it. Electrification is not going to happen in the next 10 years. It can't. The BEV industry is limited by batteries and batteries are limited by mining. This is why Elon has said Tesla may get into mining. The point being, one manufacturer cannot just produce an extra million cars without other manufacturer(s) producing 1 million less cars. All of the late and cancelled BEV programs, with the exception of Tesla, have been due to cell shortages. Building more battery plants isn't necessarily the answer, if more rare earth ore is not mined. We need both: more cell manufacturing and more raw material to make the cells.
Agreed, 100% electrification can't happen that quick. I was exaggerating a bit. Here's the way that I see Tesla losing a ton of ground. 1. Sanders (or Warren, or Inslee, or someone like that) gets elected 2. Fossil Fuel industry subsidies die 3. Those subsidies go to electric vehicles 4. Electric vehicle purchase credits return to consumers At this point, all the major manufacturers who have been mass-assembling vehicles forever are going to partner with Chinese companies/European companies like Renault, etc. It benefits the American manufacturers by getting them access to electric vehicle knowledge/etc. and benefits Renault (example) by giving them access to the American market. Tesla is not used to producing at the same speed that a Ford/GM/FCA can. They've been doing it since the automobile came about after all. Lost my train of thought because someone came and bothered me at work and now I'm wrapping things up before heading out for the extended weekend.
While we mostly agree, we do differ in this regard. How is partnering with Renault going to produce more cells and raise either the number of cars that can be produced or the battery capacity that can be installed per car? I think an ICE manufacturer with a partnership that allows them to provide autonomous driving will have better medium term prospects to an BEV manufacturer without AD.
Unless I'm mistaken, you didn't mention HMC. They've got an urban electric run-about going into production this fall with deliveries to fulfill first orders planned for next Spring.
My point was Renault has no access to the US but the ability to already build Electric Vehicles, the infrastructure, the research and development, etc. FCA has Jeep/Ram/Chrysler minivans that have a decent market share in the US (and globally if you're talking jeep), plus the ability to manufacture cars very fast and efficiently. If you combine the two, add capital, etc. the head start that Tesla has on each becomes less significant. So FCA goes from basically no EV's or plans to build them, to now having the ability to overnight with Renault. That's all I'm really saying. Companies who have high efficiency in manufacturing cars will partner with smaller EV companies and will catch up, as soon as it becomes more financially lucrative. Right now the administration in the US is rolling back subsidies for EV's, removing tax breaks, and continues to provide subsidies to the fossil fuel industry, so there's almost literally no reason to spend all that capital moving towards EV's yet. Some states are even adding taxes to EV vehicles because they aren't paying gas taxes. So they're punishing those who are being responsible in terms of helping the environment. I've heard that in IL we are going to be charging a $1000 fee for annual license plate renewal fees on EV's to compensate for lost tax dollars on gas taxes. Of course Tesla has the highest market share on EV's right now, because the other companies realize it's a waste of money to invest in it at this point when people aren't buying enough of them, and the government isn't forcing, or even encouraging it.
Cuts in production will have a predictable impact on Toyota Motor's results, added to the fall in sales in China, its second largest market after the United States: Toyota vehicle registrations in China plummeted 70% YoY in February. Other Japanese companies, such as Nissan, Honda or Isuzu, were also forced to temporarily suspend their production or reduce it due to interruptions in the supply of auto parts, given that 30% of the spare parts enter them from China.
