Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of October 7th! This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: Major Indices End of Week: Major Futures Markets on Friday: Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD: What to Watch in the Week Ahead: Monday 3 p.m. Consumer credit Tuesday 6 a.m. NFIB Small Business index 8:30 a.m. Producer price index Wednesday 10 a.m. Wholesale trade 10 a.m. JOLTS 2 p.m. FOMC minutes Thursday 8:30 a.m. Weekly jobless claims 8:30 a.m. Consumer price index Friday 8:30 a.m. Import prices 10 a.m. Consumer sentiment
Rollercoaster Week Ends With Buying Panic As World Sinks Into Recession It has been a remarkable, rollercoaster week for the market, which first plunged after a dismal manufacturing ISM print, the lowest in a decade, as stocks shocked traders by responding correctly for once to shitty economic data... Stocks inexplicably respond to economic data; traders everywhere stunned pic.twitter.com/kxpau1Sv96 — zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 1, 2019 ... then briefly plunged some more after the non-manufacturing ISM also badly missed expectations on Thursday, only to reverse the drop just as violently as liquidity junkies observed the jump in October rate cut odds, reassuring traders that the Fed "got their back" again, and pushing the S&P sharply higher as "bad news was great news". The week then culminated with today's disappointing payrolls report, which however could have been even worse, and as rate cut odds dropped modestly, stocks surged as "decent news was great news." While stocks levitated all day, the buying frenzy was only truly unleashed in the last hour of trading, when stocks exploded higher, pushing what until 3:30pm had been a "MOC for sale" imbalance to a $1.5BN MOC to buy at the close of trading, and triggering the biggest buying program since Sept 4, as the NYSE TICK printed at 1245. Looking below the surface showed that we regressed to a familiar regime, one where momentum and growth stocks led the move higher, while value tumbled as the market once again fell in love with "growth leaders" suggesting that the surge in the market was driven by expectations of global economic slowdown and even more central bank intervention. Whatever the cause, the scare of the early half of the week, which had sent the market on pace for its worst week of the year, disappeared with the Dow staging a remarkable, 828 point rally from the Thursday lows, and the Friday ramp was the strongest since mid-August. As all this is happening, the world continues to slide faster toward a recession... ... now that China's credit creation machinery appears to be completely broken, and Beijing's attempts to rekindle China's massive credit impulse get ever weaker. Yet as equities surged, bond yields tumbled, and despite rebounding slightly after today's NFP report, the 10Y yield sank all day, closing near session lows. It wasn't just the 10Y yield sliding: the entire curve gravitated lower... ... and since the short-end got hammered the most, the yield curve steepened substantially, with the 2s10s blowing out from 5bps to start the week, to a high of 16bps on Thursday as 2Y yields tumbled, only to fad some of the move higher on Friday. There was also a sharp reversal in the Bloomberg dollar index, which after hitting multi-year highs just before Tuesday's Mfg ISM, tumbled as currency traders priced in more rate cuts by the Fed. It closed the week at the lows. Similar to bonds, commodities hardly shared stocks euphoria, and Brent tumbled from $62 to $56 on Thursday, before recovering some losses on Friday, still down nearly 6% on the week. The good news: traders get to do it all over again next week, when we finally get some real news - instead of just lies, rumors and speculation - from the upcoming US-China trade talks. If the two countries fail to reach some agreement, the pain observed in the first half of this week is likely to make a dramatic return.
Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2019- S&P sectors for the past week-
Next Week's Economic Indicators - 10/4/19 Fri, Oct 4, 2019 All-in-all, it was a pretty mixed week for economic data, specifically manufacturing and labor data. While Markit’s gauge on manufacturing was slightly stronger than both expectations and the August print, ISM’s version disappointed with little in the way of bright spots among its components. Hard data, on the other hand, is showing a bit of a different picture as Durable Goods appear healthy with the fastest 3m/3m growth rate since last November as we discussed in Thursday's Closer. The Markit Services PMI and ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Index were also split with Markit’s reading holding steady as ISM disappointed once again. Employment data was the other major focus of the week with similar disappointments, but some silver linings. Ahead of Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls Report, ISM’s Employment components for both the Manufacturing and Services sectors further weakened in September while this week’s initial jobless claims rose slightly more than expected (although continuing claims fell again). ADP’s reading on employment also fell more than expected. The NFP report followed suit showing fewer jobs added in September, but new lows in the unemployment rate and underemployment rate added to the case of continued labor market strength. Economic data takes a bit of a breather next week with only two-thirds as many releases this week. Consumer credit is first up on the docket and is expected to moderate to $15 billion after a very strong print last time around. On Tuesday, we will get confidence numbers out of the small business world. NFIB’s Small Business Optimism is forecasted to fall to 102.5 from 103.1 in August. PPI is also out that morning, although no change is expected for both the headline and core numbers. CPI data is due to be released later in the week on Thursday and likewise, no change is expected. Further in inflation data, on Friday, import and export price indices are also scheduled to be released. In labor data, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) will come out on Wednesday followed by weekly claims numbers the following day. After rising to 219K this week, claims are expected to improve to 217K. Finally, Friday’s preliminary University of Michigan Sentiment for October will round out the week. It is expected to fall to 92.0 after last month’s rebound up to 93.2. Labor Market Chugs Along October 04, 2019 The U.S. labor market keeps chugging along, despite signs of weakness in other pockets of the U.S. economy. Nonfarm payrolls rose 136,000 in September, and July and August payrolls growth were revised up by 45,000. The 12-month average payrolls change climbed to 179,000 including Friday’s data, still slightly higher than the expansion average. Overall, the September jobs report showed hiring has been steady, defying recent worries of economic weakness after surprisingly weak manufacturing and services surveys were released earlier this week. Other labor-market measures also look healthy. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5% in September, a new cycle low, and initial jobless claims are still subdued. Wage growth slowed notably last month, though, hinting that inflationary pressures could be moderating. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, average hourly earnings growth fell to 2.9% year over year, the slowest pace since July 2018. Slowing average hourly earnings growth could point to a cooling job market. However, average hourly earnings growth for production and nonsupervisory workers increased 3.5% year over year, indicating there could be temporary influences weighing down the overall wage measure. At any rate, 2.9% wage growth is still enough to buoy personal incomes and consumer spending while keeping interest rates at bay. “Even though hiring has slowed slightly this year, it still looks healthy for the 10th year of this economic expansion,” said LPL Financial Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch. “Wages are growing near a 3% clip, and we still see evidence that domestic inflation is subdued enough to support an accommodative Federal Reserve.” October Most Volatile Month of the Year Historically speaking, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) tends to reach its seasonal high in the month of October. This may be due to the fact that the two worst performing months of the year, August and September (by average performance) precede it. October also has the honor of slaying twelve, post-WWII bear markets. A bear market’s low is frequently accompanied by high levels of fear and market volatility. VIX’s seasonal pattern can be seen in the following chart. October’s peak and July’s low are indicated by blue arrows. October’s volatility peak is also visible when actual daily percent changes are analyzed. October has hosted the most daily moves in excess of 1%, 2%, 3%, 5%, 7% and even 10% since 1930. Do not fret over the nine times S&P 500 has moved more than 10% in a single day. Six of the nine occurrences were way back in the 1930’s. Only three have occurred more recently and out of those, two were actually positive days (10/13/2008 +11.58% and 10/28/2008 +10.79%). Actually only two of the nine days with moves in excess of 10% were negative days: 3/18/1935 –10.06% and 10/19/1987 –20.47%. Putting the table data into a bar chart adds a quick confirmation of October’s heightened volatility versus all other months. Some October Weakness Common in Pre-Election Years It certainly did not take long for the market to trigger Octoberphobia this year. Tuesday’s soft manufacturing report was at least part of the trigger. DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have already declined over 2.6% and its just the second trading day of the month. Tomorrow’s Non-Manufacturing ISM report and Friday’s jobs report could sooth some of the current recession fears and warrant close attention. However, market weakness in October, even in pre-election years is common. Our recent post showed October ranking second worst of all month in pre-election years. October’s tepid history in pre-election years can also be seen in the following seasonal pattern charts. The only real notably difference between this year and past pre-election years is weakness has arrived earlier. Looking at the black line in each chart, the average pre-election year October pullback has been around 3% for DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ. A larger pullback this year would not be out of the question considering trade, growth and political uncertainty. If economic data proves resilient, then the usual end of year rally enjoyed in past pre-election years will likely materialize.
Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 10.4.19- Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices- ...and here are the rally levels from current prices-
Stock Market Analysis Video for October 4th, 2019 Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon ShadowTrader Video Weekly 10.6.19 Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek (VIDEO NOT YET POSTED!)
Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead. ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time*** Monday 10.7.19 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE. Monday 10.7.19 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE. Tuesday 10.8.19 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 10.8.19 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 10.9.19 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE. Wednesday 10.9.19 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 10.10.19 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 10.10.19 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE. Friday 10.11.19 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 10.11.19 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE.
And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead- ($DPZ $DAL $AZZ $LEVI $HELE $FAST $INFY $SAR $EXFO) If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here- Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning October 7th, 2019 <-- click there to view!
Market close to highs of the day here. I seriously doubt any trade deal will be made later this week but we will see
^^ this i couldn't help but post this here this is another frequently used meme on the discord server seems appropriate anytime we get news on the trade front ... rinse and repeat Spoiler: Click to Show!
so i usually post these on the weekly earnings threads but figured this was worth a quick share in here as well. earnings season officially gets going in earnest from next week. here are some the most anticipated releases for the next couple of weeks courtesy of earnings whispers. these are all "confirmed" released dates btw, or at least according to EW. should be an interesting next couple of weeks head
AAPL has been doing pretty well over the past month considering the volatility, ive been in it for about a month, glad i kept with it. cant say the same for roku and micron, tried to get back in them and got wacked last week
