What would happen if you could time the market perfectly?

Discussion in 'Investing' started by BenTheInvestor, Feb 24, 2018.

  1. BenTheInvestor

    BenTheInvestor New Member

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    I actually made a YouTube video about this:

    I know it's impossible...but fun to try anyway.
     
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  2. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    I believe many of us over the years have considered the possibilities you present, but probably not presented it nearly so well. Nicely done.
     
  3. ElectricSavant

    ElectricSavant Active Member

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    I wish this video still worked.

    I think it is important to visualize.
     
  4. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    The video doesn't work. I suspect I could come pretty close on the content, though.

    I fail to comprehend the reason of the vast majority. Instead of choosing to go with a nearly 100% chance of doing good with investing, they go with a nearly 0% chance of doing amazing with trading. Look at the ratios on this site. How many investors do we have? Three or four? This thinking keeps the Las Vegas lights twinkling and drives a pretty significant portion of the economy.

    Personally, I'll take the nearly sure thing.

    * Of course, my logic has complete disregard for people's claims of trading success. I file them in the same folder as the legions of people who go to Vegas win every time. Instead, I go with the exchange statistics as they are objective. Jack Boggle built an empire and wrote a book on this.

    Please don't take this post for wanting people to do poorly or any sort of ill will toward stock and commodity trading. I wish you all well and hope you succeed.
     
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  5. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Crymany, TomB, why'd ya have to go and pinch a big steaming duker in the middle of the living room floor? Dang, it's standing up like a trophy, right there on the new carpet too!

    Don't you realize that traders also hold investments but they have skills they can bring to bear to minimize their average cost, follow trends, and maximize profits? Skills you, I'm sorry to say, ignorantly pooh pooh. Maybe you are just projecting your bad feelings about your miserable TSLA investment; feeling the pain, the remorse, the fear. I mean damn, don't you even recognize a downtrend when you see it? If you had half the trading sense of half the traders here, you'd been cashed out above 300 and just sitting back waiting to buy back twice as many shares. Good traders have the most important skill of all, the ability to admit when they're wrong, right away, without a feeling about it one way or the other. But of course they have skills to recognize when they're wrong. They don't get emotionally attached to a trade because they know they don't even have to be right 50% of the time to make money. You dont' get that, I know, otherwise you'd have sold just one of the many bounces in TSLA's downtrend. What are you afraid of? That if you get out it could cost you a couple day's rise and another $7 of commissions to get back in? Good grief, or is it that you are afraid to admit you were wrong? Disciplined traders don't care if they are right or wrong. After they put on a trade all they know about that one trade is that something is going to happen, it will go up or it will go down, doesn't matter. But since they have an edge, they know over many trades they will win more than they lose and even if that doesn't happen it doesn't matter because the losers are cut short and the winners are allowed to run.

    By the way, disciplined traders own the casino, they have a significant statistical edge. It's the buy-and-hold muppets who think they are financial genius's who can "know" fair value and ignore all the other participants and market forces, and think that they are right and the market is wrong; or undisciplined traders who let a trade turn into an investment, who are playing red or black on the roulette wheel and who have no edge and who get fleeced holding stupid speculative "investments". Did you catch that? It's the traders who let bad trades turn into investments who lose. That's the majority you are talking about. It's not the disciplined traders who lose, its the newb traders who turn into investor muppets.

    Stick around long enough and you will be a trader, resistance is futile.:)
     
    #5 Onepoint272, Jun 3, 2019
    Last edited: Jun 4, 2019
  6. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    There are 4 parts to this. They're worth it.

     
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  7. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    This one sentence does a great job of highlighting the difference between a trader and an investor.

    I'm happy with my Tesla investment. I want to own the company. I like what the company is doing. I believe in the future of Tesla.

    If my primary focus was watching numbers flip on my screen, I would be extremely unhappy with my Tesla holdings. If I was trading it, it would be a bad position.

    Trading, or any game of chance, is nearly impossible to win long term. This is because the odds of winning are low. The odds of winning two rolls of the dice in a row are far lower. Three rolls, far lower still. You may beat the S&P500 short term but it is nearly impossible to beat it long term.

    This post is not for the benefit of Mr. Onepoint272. I post this for folks new to the markets who may not realize there is an approach that has an extremely high possibility of success and also recommend these folks research the statistics on how many short term traders succeed as I believe they will find the answer extremely sobering.
     
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  8. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    No, I'm sorry to have to say that your continued attack on traders is flawed. You have it completely backwards. But you're not alone, I'm having de ja vu, having had this tiresome argument with others who once read Benji Graham and believe it's his way or the highway and believe they can invest just like grandfather Buffett. Those are the beliefs the Wall Street machine wants the muppets to have,

    To be brief, your investment strategy is gambling, pure and simple. You sound like the old crusty guys playing the ponies at the track.
    • You're "happy" with your investment.
    • You "want to own" it.
    • You "like what" they are doing.
    • You "believe in" their future.
    Of course your brand of investing is gambling. You place your bet and hope for the best with zero trade management. You pretend you know what is going to happen next based on a whole host of assumptions; you bet on your decision. To make matters worse you don't even try to improve your position. Your level of understanding seems so severely limited. You should consider doing yourself a favor by getting off your horse, cleaning the wax out of your ears, and listening.

    Disciplined traders enter positions with high probability outcomes but don't pretend to know what is going to happen next. They use charts but they don't pretend that just because a particular line, or whatever, was hit that it had anything to do with moving the price. The outcome of an individual trade doesn't matter to the trader. It's about playing the mathematical probabilities and knowing that over many trades they have a significant statistical edge.

    Oh, and I can't let this pass:

    Trading, or any game of chance, is nearly impossible to win long term. This is because the odds of winning are low. The odds of winning two rolls of the dice in a row are far lower. Three rolls, far lower still. You may beat the S&P500 short term but it is nearly impossible to beat it long term.
    Out of limited patience and frustration with the unsupported arguments and errors in logic I'll just say that it is your strategy that is rolling dice. You are the one thinking you will beat the S&P with TSLA....a dice roll. Trading on the other hand is like being able to count 10s and face cards at a 1-deck black jack table, its like being the dealer of an 8-deck shoe. Am I getting through to you?!!!!

    I'll agree with you this far though: for those with lesser analytical aptitude and abilities, they may be better off remaining at the mercy of the markets. But for the rest of us here who know better, please stop with the pseudo logical attacks on traders.
     
    #8 Onepoint272, Jun 5, 2019
    Last edited: Jun 5, 2019
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  9. hitman

    hitman Well-Known Member

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    @Onepoint272 don't waste your time on this thread drop it, I was going to be post #6 with stats and flaws but I held off and glad I did. Good luck TomB16 on your journey with the market.
     

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