Stock Market Today: April 13th - 17th, 2020

yep, i know you have been on top of this as well since day #1 of this bounce back from the lows, so much kudos to you too @stock1234

i do feel like it is pretty blatantly obvious what is the driving the market ... and anyone who thinks otherwise i feel just isn't paying attention.

pretty clearly obvious that it's the fed printing like there's no tomorrow to prop things up.

i do feel like that if you took the fed out of the picture, this would be a complete 180-degree turn the other way imho.

i mean with crude looking like it wants a retest of that 19-handle again too as @Three Eyes alluded to ... i mean, in any other time this market would and should be down bunches just off of that. but of course we have the "invisible hand" aka, the fed. just my worthless 2c regarding that anyway what do i know

 

S&P 500 Sector Performance Numbers
Tue, Apr 14, 2020

Below is an updated look at the performance of the S&P 500 and its eleven sectors over various time periods. From the S&P 500's last all time high on February 19th, no sector has been hit as hard as Energy. From those highs for the broader index, the sector had been more than cut in half by the time the S&P 500 found a bottom on March 23rd. In the time since then, Energy has been the best performing sector having risen 44.9%. Meanwhile, some of the best performing sectors over the past few years like Technology and Consumer Discretionary have performed essentially inline with the S&P during this rally. Despite Energy's outperformance off the 3/23 lows, the sector is still down 36.3% since the S&P 500's February 19th high and is down even more YTD. Over the past year, two year, and three year period, Energy has also been roughly cut in half.

After the huge rally we've seen since March 23rd, there are now four sectors that are back up on a year-over-year basis -- Utilities, Health Care, Technology, and Consumer Staples. On a two-year basis, seven of eleven sectors are now back in the green, while only three sectors are now down on a three-year basis (Energy, Industrials, and Communication Services).

The S&P 500 as a whole is now down just 2.53% year-over-year, while it's up 6.6% over the last two years and up 21.6% over the last three years.



The Covid crash brought most sectors to some form of a multi-year low. But with the significant bounce since 3/23 across sectors, a significant mean reversion has taken place and several sectors are now sitting more in the middle of the past few year's range as shown in the charts below. Meanwhile, others like Energy, Financials, Industrials, and Materials remain at the lower end of those ranges.

Even on a shorter time frame equities are simply in the middle of their ranges. Last week, the Health Care sector finally crossed back above its 50-DMA; the first sector to do so since the Utilities sector in the first week of March. Today, the Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Health Care, Materials, and Technology sectors have all done the same but are still within 1% of their 50-DMAs except for Health Care which is 2.5% above.

The S&P 500, Communication Services, Real Estate, and Utilities are only around 2.5 or fewer percentage points away from their 50-DMAs. But for Financials and Industrials, they are still over 8% away. Energy still has the furthest to go currently 13.5% below its 50-DMA.

 

although not unexpected by any stretch here, but that was a pretty ugly retail sales # this AM

looks like the drop was more than double the previous all time record drop of -3.9% back on nov. of 2008.

 

2020 sure has been off to a pretty "volatile" year to say the least.

already, not even 4 months in here, the spx has equaled the total +/-1% change from all of last year



in addition to that, the spx has already had 23 separate +/-3% changes up to this point in 2020. this actually happens to tie the 2009 mark and is one of the most ever seen on record.

 

this is also not all that terribly surprisingly either, especially after the market had a pretty violent selloff since the ATH. but, maybe worth noting that the spx is up +27% in the past 15 trading days, for its best 15-day run since going all the way back to may of 1993. good 'ole bear market rally, eh. saw a lot of that back during the GFC bear and all of the other notable bears of the past.



still a loooooooong way to go here until EOY, and with this being an election year anything can certainly happen between now and then

worth noting that the spx was down -30% ytd just a few short weeks ago, and sure enough after the huge dead cat bounce we've had off the march 23rd low, there has now been talk that this could make a run for the green when 2020 is all said and done. we'll have to see about that. big annual market declines are rare, last major one we saw was of course back during the GFC (2008).